April 14, 2024

Phillies at Astros World Series Game 2: Predictions & Bet Tips

The Houston Astros have money line betting odds of -135 at home against the Philadelphia Phillies. You can bet the money line on the Philadelphia Phillies at +125. The total for this game is set at over/under 7.

Baseball Bot’s system is based on the starting pitchers listed on this page. If one or both of those pitchers do not end up pitching, consider this analysis void.

Need help understanding the statistics used below? Check out our Baseball Stats Guide.

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Philadelphia Phillies +125

PHI Starter: Zack Wheeler 2.82 ERA/2.89 FIP
PHI Bullpen: 4.27 ERA/3.7 FIP
PHI OPS: .741

Houston Astros -135

HOU Starter: Framber Valdez 2.89 ERA/3.14 FIP
HOU Bullpen: 2.78 ERA/3.06 FIP
HOU OPS: .742

Houston Astros Pitching:

The Astros will send Framber Valdez to the mound at home against the Philadelphia Phillies. Framber Valdez has a 2.89 ERA and a 3.14 FIP in 30 starts and 196.1 innings during the regular season. To clarify, his average start lasted 6.53666666666667 innings. All things considered, he struck out 8.43 batters per nine innings on the positive side. On the negative side, he’s walking 3.03 per nine and allowing 0.5 HR/9. Additionally, over his last 12 starts and 81.1 innings, Framber Valdez had a 3.21 ERA and a 2.89 FIP with 9.07 K/9, 2.55 BB/9. In addition, he allowed 0.55 homeruns per nine innings.

During the regular season, he pitched for a 3.76 ERA/2.63 FIP at home with 9.96 strikeouts per nine, 3.21 walks per nine, and 0.33 homeruns allowed per nine innings.

The Astros bullpen behind him had a 2.78 ERA/3.06 FIP for the regular season while striking out 10.44 per nine, walking 3.44 per nine, and allowing 0.66 homeruns/9 with a BABIP of .284.

Those numbers for the last month of the season are slightly different with a 2.33 ERA/2.72 FIP. The strikeouts change to 12.39 per nine, walks to 2.96 BB/9, and homeruns go to 0.95 per nine innings with a overall BABIP of .288.

In the second half they allowed 0.67 homers per nine, 3.14 walks, and struck out 11.32 batters per nine innings with a BABIP of .314. They had a 2.97 ERA/2.74 FIP in the second half.

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Philadelphia Phillies Offense:

Framber Valdez and the bullpen balance against the Phillies offense which had a regular season OPS of .741 with an isolated slugging of .170, a team wRC+ of 107. They had a team walk percentage of 7.9% and they strikeout 22.3% percent of the time.

Over the last month of the season, the Philadelphia Phillies offense has struck out in 22.1% percent of at-bats, walked in 8.6% of ABs, slugged for a .185 isolated slugging, and hit for a team .757 OPS with a wRC+ of 110.

The numbers vary slightly for the second half of the season with a OPS of .761, team isolated slugging of .167, and wRC+ of 112. During that time the Phillies struck out 22.1% and walked in 8.6% percent of at-bats.

The Phillies’s offense has hit for a wRC+ of 101 in road games during the regular season. On the road, they had a .718 on-base plus slugging and walk 7.6% percent of the time while striking out in 22.3% percent of at-bats.

The Philadelphia Phillies against lefties had a 120 wRC+ in view of a 0.787 OPS with a 0.078 walk rate and a 0.787 strikeout rate.

Comparatively, against righties they had a 104 wRC+ in view of a 0.734 OPS with a 0.07 walk rate and a 0.734 strikeout rate.

The Phillies had an over/under record of 88-78-11, going over in 0.528 percent and under 0.472 percent. Lastly, they had a straight-up record (straight-up division record) of 96-77 (44-36) and a Run Line record of 90-83-4.

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MLB Statcast Match-up:
Statcast Leaderboard
Hard Hit % Barrels %
Zack Wheeler 0.345 0.077
HOU Offense 0.389 0.081
Framber Valdez 0.414 0.057
PHI Offense 0.409 0.085

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Philadelphia Phillies Pitching:

The Phillies will send Zack Wheeler out first to face Astros. He struck out 9.59 batters per nine during the regular season while walking 2 per nine. He pitched 153 innings and made 26 starts, an average start of 5.88461538461539 innings. Zack Wheeler allowed 0.76 homeruns per nine innings in those starts with a 2.82 ERA/2.89 FIP all in all. His road stats in particular have him at a 3.84 ERA/3.15 FIP with 9.48 K/9, 2.04 BB/9, and 0.96 HR/9 over 75 innings.

Zack Wheeler has a 2.7 ERA/3.24 FIP over his past 9 starts and 53.1 innings. During this stretch he has struck out 9.28 batters per nine, walked 2.03 per nine, and allowed 1.01 homers per nine innings.

He will be backed up by his bullpen which has a 4.27 ERA/3.7 FIP in the regular season. They walked 4.22 per nine, struck out 9.76 per nine, and allowed 0.82 homers/nine. Their BABIP was .312.

Over the last month of the season, the Philadelphia Phillies bullpen has a K/9 of 10.07, a BB/9 of 3.95, and a HR/9 of 0.73 with a .347 BABIP. To sum up, they had a 5.09 ERA/3.44 FIP in this case.

If we zoom out over the second half of the season, we see a Philadelphia Phillies bullpen that struck out 10.08 batters per nine, walked 4.28 per nine, and allowed 0.82 homeruns per nine innings. They had a BABIP of .339 over this time period with a 5.15 ERA/3.68 FIP.

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Houston Astros Offense:

The Astros’s offense hit for a 122 wRC+ at home this season with an OPS of .775. Their walk and strikeout percentages per at-bat are 9.1% and 18.8%.

For the season, they had a .742 OPS and a .176 isolated slugging. That’s good for a 112 wRC+. At the plate, they struck out 19.5% and walked 8.7% percent of the time.

Over the past month of the season, the offense hit for a 116 wRC+ on a .757 OPS and .181 isolated slugging. During this run, the Houston Astros offense has struck out in 17.6% percent of at-bats and walked in 7.9% of them.

The numbers vary over the second half of the year as the Astros walked in 7.7% and struck out in 18.5% of at-bats. In the second half they had a 111 wRC+, a .743 OPS, and a .167 isolated slugging.

Against righties they had a 104 wRC+ in view of a 0.717 OPS with a 0.081 walk rate and a 0.717 strikeout rate.

The Astros against lefties had a 133 wRC+ in view of a 0.818 OPS with a 0.082 walk rate and a 0.818 strikeout rate.

The Houston Astros are 113-56 (54-25) straight up / straight up in the division this season for a 0.66 win percentage. For the 2022 season, they were 90-79-5 against the run line, winning 0.532 percent of games. Lastly, they have a 62-99-13 over/under/push record this season. Therefore they went over 0.394 percent of the time and under at 0.606.

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Baseball Bot Prediction:

Phillies: 3.07483222663339
Astros: 3.18807906126377

Total: 6.26291128789715

Best Bets:

Astros -135
Under 7

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