April 14, 2024

Astros at Phillies World Series Game 1: Predictions & Bet Tips

The Philadelphia Phillies have money line betting odds of +150 at home against the Houston Astros. You can bet the money line on the Houston Astros at -163. The total for this game is set at over/under .

Baseball Bot’s system is based on the starting pitchers listed on this page. If one or both of those pitchers do not end up pitching, consider this analysis void.

Need help understanding the statistics used below? Check out our Baseball Stats Guide.

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Houston Astros -163

HOU Starter: Justin Verlander 1.75 ERA/2.49 FIP
HOU Bullpen: 2.78 ERA/3.06 FIP
HOU OPS: .742

Philadelphia Phillies +150

PHI Starter: Aaron Nola 3.25 ERA/2.58 FIP
PHI Bullpen: 4.27 ERA/3.7 FIP
PHI OPS: .741

Philadelphia Phillies Pitching:

The Phillies will send Aaron Nola to the mound at home against the Houston Astros. Aaron Nola has a 3.25 ERA and a 2.58 FIP in 32 starts and 205 innings during the regular season. To clarify, his average start lasted 6.40625 innings. All things considered, he struck out 10.32 batters per nine innings on the positive side. On the negative side, he’s walking 1.27 per nine and allowing 0.83 HR/9. Additionally, over his last 13 starts and 78.1 innings, Aaron Nola had a 3.45 ERA and a 2.22 FIP with 11.26 K/9, 1.49 BB/9. In addition, he allowed 0.69 homeruns per nine innings.

During the regular season, he pitched for a 3.53 ERA/3.11 FIP at home with 10.3 strikeouts per nine, 1.58 walks per nine, and 1.11 homeruns allowed per nine innings.

The Phillies bullpen behind him had a 4.27 ERA/3.7 FIP for the regular season while striking out 9.76 per nine, walking 4.22 per nine, and allowing 0.82 homeruns/9 with a BABIP of .312.

Those numbers for the last month of the season are slightly different with a 5.09 ERA/3.44 FIP. The strikeouts change to 10.07 per nine, walks to 3.95 BB/9, and homeruns go to 0.73 per nine innings with a overall BABIP of .347.

In the second half they allowed 0.82 homers per nine, 4.28 walks, and struck out 10.08 batters per nine innings with a BABIP of .339. They had a 5.15 ERA/3.68 FIP in the second half.

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Houston Astros Offense:

Aaron Nola and the bullpen balance against the Astros offense which had a regular season OPS of .742 with an isolated slugging of .176, a team wRC+ of 112. They had a team walk percentage of 8.7% and they strikeout 19.5% percent of the time.

Over the last month of the season, the Houston Astros offense has struck out in 17.6% percent of at-bats, walked in 7.9% of ABs, slugged for a .181 isolated slugging, and hit for a team .757 OPS with a wRC+ of 116.

The numbers vary slightly for the second half of the season with a OPS of .743, team isolated slugging of .167, and wRC+ of 111. During that time the Astros struck out 17.6% and walked in 7.9% percent of at-bats.

The Astros’s offense has hit for a wRC+ of 103 in road games during the regular season. On the road, they had a .711 on-base plus slugging and walk 8.4% percent of the time while striking out in 20.1% percent of at-bats.

The Houston Astros against lefties had a 133 wRC+ in view of a 0.818 OPS with a 0.082 walk rate and a 0.818 strikeout rate.

Comparatively, against righties they had a 104 wRC+ in view of a 0.717 OPS with a 0.081 walk rate and a 0.717 strikeout rate.

The Astros had an over/under record of 62-99-13, going over in 0.394 percent and under 0.606 percent. Lastly, they had a straight-up record (straight-up division record) of 113-56 (54-25) and a Run Line record of 90-79-5.

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MLB Statcast Match-up:
Statcast Leaderboard
Hard Hit % Barrels %
Justin Verlander 0.348 0.063
PHI Offense 0.409 0.085
Aaron Nola 0.316 0.071
HOU Offense 0.389 0.081

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Houston Astros Pitching:

The Astros will send Justin Verlander out first to face Phillies. He struck out 9.51 batters per nine during the regular season while walking 1.49 per nine. He pitched 175 innings and made 28 starts, an average start of 6.25 innings. Justin Verlander allowed 0.62 homeruns per nine innings in those starts with a 1.75 ERA/2.49 FIP all in all. His road stats in particular have him at a 1.86 ERA/3.28 FIP with 7.86 K/9, 1.76 BB/9, and 0.83 HR/9 over 87 innings.

Justin Verlander has a 1.51 ERA/1.51 FIP over his past 11 starts and 65.2 innings. During this stretch he has struck out 10.55 batters per nine, walked 1.37 per nine, and allowed 0.14 homers per nine innings.

He will be backed up by his bullpen which has a 2.78 ERA/3.06 FIP in the regular season. They walked 3.44 per nine, struck out 10.44 per nine, and allowed 0.66 homers/nine. Their BABIP was .284.

Over the last month of the season, the Houston Astros bullpen has a K/9 of 12.39, a BB/9 of 2.96, and a HR/9 of 0.95 with a .288 BABIP. To sum up, they had a 2.33 ERA/2.72 FIP in this case.

If we zoom out over the second half of the season, we see a Houston Astros bullpen that struck out 11.32 batters per nine, walked 3.14 per nine, and allowed 0.67 homeruns per nine innings. They had a BABIP of .314 over this time period with a 2.97 ERA/2.74 FIP.

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Philadelphia Phillies Offense:

The Phillies’s offense hit for a 112 wRC+ at home this season with an OPS of .765. Their walk and strikeout percentages per at-bat are 8.2% and 22.3%.

For the season, they had a .741 OPS and a .170 isolated slugging. That’s good for a 107 wRC+. At the plate, they struck out 22.3% and walked 7.9% percent of the time.

Over the past month of the season, the offense hit for a 110 wRC+ on a .757 OPS and .185 isolated slugging. During this run, the Philadelphia Phillies offense has struck out in 22.1% percent of at-bats and walked in 8.6% of them.

The numbers vary over the second half of the year as the Phillies walked in 7.5% and struck out in 21.5% of at-bats. In the second half they had a 112 wRC+, a .761 OPS, and a .167 isolated slugging.

Against righties they had a 104 wRC+ in view of a 0.734 OPS with a 0.07 walk rate and a 0.734 strikeout rate.

The Phillies against lefties had a 120 wRC+ in view of a 0.787 OPS with a 0.078 walk rate and a 0.787 strikeout rate.

The Philadelphia Phillies are 96-77 (44-36) straight up / straight up in the division this season for a 0.55 win percentage. For the 2022 season, they were 90-83-4 against the run line, winning 0.52 percent of games. Lastly, they have a 88-78-11 over/under/push record this season. Therefore they went over 0.528 percent of the time and under at 0.472.

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Baseball Bot Prediction:

Astros: 2.98938436346559
Phillies: 2.63449243240954

Total: 5.62387679587513

Best Bets:

Astros -163

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