November 28, 2023

Padres at Phillies NLCS Game 4: Predictions & Bet Tips

The Philadelphia Phillies have money line betting odds of -115 at home against the San Diego Padres. You can bet the money line on the San Diego Padres at -105. The total for this game is set at over/under 8.5.

Baseball Bot’s system is based on the starting pitchers listed on this page. If one or both of those pitchers do not end up pitching, consider this analysis void.

Need help understanding the statistics used below? Check out our Baseball Stats Guide.

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San Diego Padres -105

SDP Starter: Mike Clevinger 4.33 ERA/4.97 FIP
SDP Bullpen: 3.83 ERA/3.61 FIP
SDP OPS: .702

Philadelphia Phillies -115

PHI Starter: Bailey Falter 3.9 ERA/4.66 FIP
PHI Bullpen: 4.27 ERA/3.7 FIP
PHI OPS: .741

Philadelphia Phillies Pitching:

The Phillies will send Bailey Falter to the mound at home against the San Diego Padres. Bailey Falter has a 3.9 ERA and a 4.66 FIP in 15 starts and 83 innings during the regular season. To clarify, his average start lasted 5.53333333333333 innings. All things considered, he struck out 8.02 batters per nine innings on the positive side. On the negative side, he’s walking 1.84 per nine and allowing 1.73 HR/9. Additionally, over his last 10 starts and 55 innings, Bailey Falter had a 3.44 ERA and a 4.31 FIP with 8.18 K/9, 1.47 BB/9. In addition, he allowed 1.64 homeruns per nine innings.

During the regular season, he pitched for a 5.49 ERA/5.12 FIP at home with 8.47 strikeouts per nine, 1.6 walks per nine, and 2.06 homeruns allowed per nine innings.

The Phillies bullpen behind him had a 4.27 ERA/3.7 FIP for the regular season while striking out 9.76 per nine, walking 4.22 per nine, and allowing 0.82 homeruns/9 with a BABIP of .312.

Those numbers for the last month of the season are slightly different with a 5.09 ERA/3.44 FIP. The strikeouts change to 10.07 per nine, walks to 3.95 BB/9, and homeruns go to 0.73 per nine innings with a overall BABIP of .347.

In the second half they allowed 0.82 homers per nine, 4.28 walks, and struck out 10.08 batters per nine innings with a BABIP of .339. They had a 5.15 ERA/3.68 FIP in the second half.

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San Diego Padres Offense:

Bailey Falter and the bullpen balance against the Padres offense which had a regular season OPS of .702 with an isolated slugging of .141, a team wRC+ of 103. They had a team walk percentage of 9.3% and they strikeout 21.4% percent of the time.

Over the last month of the season, the San Diego Padres offense has struck out in 21.4% percent of at-bats, walked in 8.2% of ABs, slugged for a .153 isolated slugging, and hit for a team .706 OPS with a wRC+ of 102.

The numbers vary slightly for the second half of the season with a OPS of .714, team isolated slugging of .153, and wRC+ of 106. During that time the Padres struck out 21.4% and walked in 8.2% percent of at-bats.

The Padres’s offense has hit for a wRC+ of 104 in road games during the regular season. On the road, they had a .725 on-base plus slugging and walk 9.5% percent of the time while striking out in 20.5% percent of at-bats.

The San Diego Padres against lefties had a 101 wRC+ in view of a 0.698 OPS with a 0.083 walk rate and a 0.698 strikeout rate.

Comparatively, against righties they had a 106 wRC+ in view of a 0.711 OPS with a 0.1 walk rate and a 0.711 strikeout rate.

The Padres had an over/under record of 82-86-5, going over in 0.488 percent and under 0.512 percent. Lastly, they had a straight-up record (straight-up division record) of 95-77 (44-36) and a Run Line record of 78-94-1.

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MLB Statcast Match-up:
Statcast Leaderboard
Hard Hit % Barrels %
Mike Clevinger 0.387 0.095
PHI Offense 0.409 0.085
Bailey Falter 0.387 0.085
SDP Offense 0.375 0.065

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San Diego Padres Pitching:

The Padres will send Mike Clevinger out first to face Phillies. He struck out 7.16 batters per nine during the regular season while walking 2.76 per nine. He pitched 114.1 innings and made 22 starts, an average start of 5.18636363636364 innings. Mike Clevinger allowed 1.57 homeruns per nine innings in those starts with a 4.33 ERA/4.97 FIP all in all. His road stats in particular have him at a 5.46 ERA/5.16 FIP with 6.85 K/9, 3.22 BB/9, and 1.54 HR/9 over 64.1 innings.

Mike Clevinger has a 4.9 ERA/5.76 FIP over his past 13 starts and 68 innings. During this stretch he has struck out 5.69 batters per nine, walked 2.65 per nine, and allowed 1.85 homers per nine innings.

He will be backed up by his bullpen which has a 3.83 ERA/3.61 FIP in the regular season. They walked 3.02 per nine, struck out 8.86 per nine, and allowed 0.86 homers/nine. Their BABIP was .288.

Over the last month of the season, the San Diego Padres bullpen has a K/9 of 9.35, a BB/9 of 3.21, and a HR/9 of 0.85 with a .242 BABIP. To sum up, they had a 3.78 ERA/3.55 FIP in this case.

If we zoom out over the second half of the season, we see a San Diego Padres bullpen that struck out 8.89 batters per nine, walked 3.13 per nine, and allowed 0.77 homeruns per nine innings. They had a BABIP of .293 over this time period with a 3.65 ERA/3.5 FIP.

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Philadelphia Phillies Offense:

The Phillies’s offense hit for a 112 wRC+ at home this season with an OPS of .765. Their walk and strikeout percentages per at-bat are 8.2% and 22.3%.

For the season, they had a .741 OPS and a .170 isolated slugging. That’s good for a 107 wRC+. At the plate, they struck out 22.3% and walked 7.9% percent of the time.

Over the past month of the season, the offense hit for a 110 wRC+ on a .757 OPS and .185 isolated slugging. During this run, the Philadelphia Phillies offense has struck out in 22.1% percent of at-bats and walked in 8.6% of them.

The numbers vary over the second half of the year as the Phillies walked in 7.5% and struck out in 21.5% of at-bats. In the second half they had a 112 wRC+, a .761 OPS, and a .167 isolated slugging.

Against righties they had a 104 wRC+ in view of a 0.734 OPS with a 0.07 walk rate and a 0.734 strikeout rate.

The Phillies against lefties had a 120 wRC+ in view of a 0.787 OPS with a 0.078 walk rate and a 0.787 strikeout rate.

The Philadelphia Phillies are 94-77 (44-36) straight up / straight up in the division this season for a 0.55 win percentage. For the 2022 season, they were 89-82-2 against the run line, winning 0.52 percent of games. Lastly, they have a 86-78-9 over/under/push record this season. Therefore they went over 0.523 percent of the time and under at 0.477.

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Baseball Bot Prediction:

Padres: 3.39310633796138
Phillies: 3.78346369899131

Total: 7.17657003695269

Best Bets:

Phillies -115
Under 8.5

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