September 22, 2023 Mariners at Rangers Predictions & Betting Tips
A complete betting guide and predictions for the September 22, 2023 match-up between the Seattle Mariners and the Texas Rangers.
The Texas Rangers have money line betting odds of -125 at home against the Seattle Mariners. You can bet the money line on the Seattle Mariners at +105. The total for this game is set at over/under 9.5.
Baseball Bot’s system is based on the starting pitchers listed on this page. If one or both of those pitchers do not end up pitching, consider this analysis void.
Need help understanding the statistics used below? Check out our Baseball Stats Guide.
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Seattle Mariners +105SEA Starter: Bryce Miller 3.88 ERA/3.66 FIP |
Texas Rangers -125TEX Starter: Dane Dunning 3.78 ERA/4.36 FIP |
Texas Rangers Pitching:
The Rangers will send Dane Dunning to the mound at home against the Seattle Mariners. Dane Dunning has a 3.78 ERA and a 4.36 FIP in 23 starts and 157 innings thus far this season. To clarify, his average start lasts 6.82608695652174 innings. All things considered, he has struck out 7.28 batters per nine innings on the positive side. On the negative side, he’s walking 2.92 per nine and allowing 1.09 HR/9. Additionally, over his last 4 starts and 24.1 innings, Dane Dunning has a 7.03 ERA and a 6.02 FIP with 9.62 K/9, 5.92 BB/9. In addition, he has allowed 1.85 homeruns per nine innings.
The Rangers bullpen behind him has a 4.9 ERA/4.55 FIP for the season while striking out 8.81 per nine, walking 3.2 per nine, and allowing 1.41 homeruns/9 with a BABIP of 0.285.
Those numbers for the last two weeks are slightly different with a 4.04 ERA/3.55 FIP. The strikeouts change to 10.02 per nine, walks to 3.56 BB/9, and homeruns go to 0.81 per nine innings with a overall BABIP of 0.291.
For the last month they have allowed 2.1 homers per nine, 3.97 walks, and struck out 9.34 batters per nine innings with a BABIP of 0.306. They have a 5.84 ERA/5.78 FIP over the past month.
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Seattle Mariners Offense:
Dane Dunning and the bullpen balance against the Mariners offense which presently has an OPS of 0.739 with an isolated slugging of 0.173, a team wRC+ of 107. They have a team walk percentage of 0.088 and they strikeout 0.258 percent of the time.
Over the past two weeks, the Seattle Mariners offense has struck out in 0.252 percent of at-bats, walked in 0.068 of ABs, slugged for a 0.143 isolated slugging, and hit for a team 0.682 OPS with a wRC+ of 90.
The numbers vary slightly for the past month with a OPS of 0.757, team isolated slugging of 0.182, and wRC+ of 112. During this time the Mariners have struck out 0.252 and walked in 0.068 percent of at-bats.
The Seattle Mariners against lefties have a 109 wRC+ in view of a 0.741 OPS with a 0.083 walk rate and a 0.261 strikeout rate.
Comparatively, against righties they have a 107 wRC+ in view of a 0.737 OPS with a 0.088 walk rate and a 0.737 strikeout rate.
The Mariners have an over/under record of 77-72-3, going over in 0.516 percent and under 0.484 percent. Lastly, they have a straight-up record (straight-up division record) of 84-68 (29-13) and a Run Line record of 74-78.
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| MLB Statcast Match-up: | ||
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| Statcast Leaderboard | ||
| Hard Hit % | Barrels % | |
| Bryce Miller | 0.411 | 0.104 |
| TEX Offense | 0.415 | 0.09 |
| Dane Dunning | 0.411 | 0.078 |
| SEA Offense | 0.412 | 0.098 |
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Seattle Mariners Pitching:
The Mariners will send Bryce Miller out first to face Rangers. He has struck out 8.27 batters per nine thus far this season while walking 1.76 per nine. He has pitched 123 innings and made 23 starts, an average start of 5.34782608695652 innings. Bryce Miller has allowed 1.02 homeruns per nine innings in those starts with a 3.88 ERA/3.66 FIP all in all.
Bryce Miller has a 4.26 ERA/2.83 FIP over his past 5 starts and 25.1 innings. During this stretch he has struck out 8.53 batters per nine, walked 1.42 per nine, and allowed 0.36 homers per nine innings.
He will be backed up by his bullpen which has a 3.52 ERA/3.79 FIP to date. They have walked 3.43 per nine, struck out 9.98 per nine, and allowed 1.01 homers/nine. Their BABIP currently sits at 0.301.
Over the last two weeks, the Seattle Mariners bullpen has a K/9 of 8.72, a BB/9 of 3.4, and a HR/9 of 1.28 with a 0.266 BABIP. To sum up, they have a 3.83 ERA/4.58 FIP in this case.
If we zoom out over the past month, we see a Seattle Mariners bullpen that has struck out 9.3 batters per nine, walked 3.34 per nine, and allowed 1.52 homeruns per nine innings. They have a BABIP of 0.273 over this time period with a 3.84 ERA/4.73 FIP.
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Texas Rangers Offense:
For the season, they have a 0.794 OPS and a 0.189 isolated slugging. That’s good for a 115 wRC+. At the plate, they have struck out 0.224 and walked 0.094 percent of the time.
Over the past two weeks, the offense has hit for a 127 wRC+ on a 0.834 OPS and 0.202 isolated slugging. During this run, the Texas Rangers offense has struck out in 0.226 percent of at-bats and walked in 0.126 of them.
The numbers vary over the past month as the Rangers have walked in 0.109 and struck out in 0.221 of at-bats. This past month they have a 113 wRC+, a 0.784 OPS, and a 0.194 isolated slugging.
Against righties they have a 114 wRC+ in view of a 0.791 OPS with a 0.091 walk rate and a 0.791 strikeout rate.
The Rangers against lefties have a 118 wRC+ in view of a 0.802 OPS with a 0.1 walk rate and a 0.802 strikeout rate.
The Texas Rangers are 84-68 (23-19) straight up / straight up in the division this season for a 0.55 win percentage. For the season, they are 81-71 against the run line, winning 0.533 percent of games. Lastly, they have a 81-65-6 over/under/push record this season. Therefore they have went over 0.553 percent of the time and under at 0.447.
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Baseball Bot Prediction:
Mariners: 4.5
Rangers: 5
Total: 9.5
Best Bets:
Rangers -125
Over 9.5
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