July 11, 2024

September 22, 2023 Braves at Nationals Predictions & Betting Tips

A complete betting guide and predictions for the September 22, 2023 match-up between the Atlanta Braves and the Washington Nationals.

The Washington Nationals have money line betting odds of +215 at home against the Atlanta Braves. You can bet the money line on the Atlanta Braves at -267. The total for this game is set at over/under 9.

Baseball Bot’s system is based on the starting pitchers listed on this page. If one or both of those pitchers do not end up pitching, consider this analysis void.

Need help understanding the statistics used below? Check out our Baseball Stats Guide.

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Atlanta Braves -267

ATL Starter: Charlie Morton 3.66 ERA/3.86 FIP
ATL Bullpen: 3.78 ERA/3.97 FIP
ATL OPS: 0.844

Washington Nationals +215

WSN Starter: Patrick Corbin 5 ERA/5.11 FIP
WSN Bullpen: 4.98 ERA/4.97 FIP
WSN OPS: 0.708

Washington Nationals Pitching:

The Nationals will send Patrick Corbin to the mound at home against the Atlanta Braves. Patrick Corbin has a 5 ERA and a 5.11 FIP in 30 starts and 171 innings thus far this season. To clarify, his average start lasts 5.7 innings. All things considered, he has struck out 6.37 batters per nine innings on the positive side. On the negative side, he’s walking 2.74 per nine and allowing 1.58 HR/9. Additionally, over his last 5 starts and 27.2 innings, Patrick Corbin has a 6.51 ERA and a 4.85 FIP with 7.81 K/9, 2.6 BB/9. In addition, he has allowed 1.63 homeruns per nine innings.

The Nationals bullpen behind him has a 4.98 ERA/4.97 FIP for the season while striking out 7.78 per nine, walking 3.73 per nine, and allowing 1.41 homeruns/9 with a BABIP of 0.299.

Those numbers for the last two weeks are slightly different with a 3.86 ERA/4.46 FIP. The strikeouts change to 8.02 per nine, walks to 4.47 BB/9, and homeruns go to 0.93 per nine innings with a overall BABIP of 0.309.

For the last month they have allowed 1.18 homers per nine, 3.23 walks, and struck out 7.64 batters per nine innings with a BABIP of 0.305. They have a 4.09 ERA/4.45 FIP over the past month.

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Atlanta Braves Offense:

Patrick Corbin and the bullpen balance against the Braves offense which presently has an OPS of 0.844 with an isolated slugging of 0.226, a team wRC+ of 125. They have a team walk percentage of 0.086 and they strikeout 0.206 percent of the time.

Over the past two weeks, the Atlanta Braves offense has struck out in 0.201 percent of at-bats, walked in 0.069 of ABs, slugged for a 0.204 isolated slugging, and hit for a team 0.817 OPS with a wRC+ of 118.

The numbers vary slightly for the past month with a OPS of 0.853, team isolated slugging of 0.228, and wRC+ of 126. During this time the Braves have struck out 0.201 and walked in 0.069 percent of at-bats.

The Atlanta Braves against lefties have a 132 wRC+ in view of a 0.874 OPS with a 0.083 walk rate and a 0.212 strikeout rate.

Comparatively, against righties they have a 123 wRC+ in view of a 0.836 OPS with a 0.087 walk rate and a 0.836 strikeout rate.

The Braves have an over/under record of 86-63-4, going over in 0.575 percent and under 0.425 percent. Lastly, they have a straight-up record (straight-up division record) of 98-55 (32-14) and a Run Line record of 80-73.

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MLB Statcast Match-up:
Statcast Leaderboard
Hard Hit % Barrels %
Charlie Morton 0.388 0.076
WSN Offense 0.347 0.058
Patrick Corbin 0.434 0.089
ATL Offense 0.456 0.117

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Atlanta Braves Pitching:

The Braves will send Charlie Morton out first to face Nationals. He has struck out 10.09 batters per nine thus far this season while walking 4.49 per nine. He has pitched 162.1 innings and made 29 starts, an average start of 5.58965517241379 innings. Charlie Morton has allowed 0.78 homeruns per nine innings in those starts with a 3.66 ERA/3.86 FIP all in all.

Charlie Morton has a 4.23 ERA/3.19 FIP over his past 5 starts and 27.2 innings. During this stretch he has struck out 11.71 batters per nine, walked 4.88 per nine, and allowed 0.33 homers per nine innings.

He will be backed up by his bullpen which has a 3.78 ERA/3.97 FIP to date. They have walked 3.27 per nine, struck out 9.93 per nine, and allowed 1.18 homers/nine. Their BABIP currently sits at 0.29.

Over the last two weeks, the Atlanta Braves bullpen has a K/9 of 10.13, a BB/9 of 4.22, and a HR/9 of 2.53 with a 0.281 BABIP. To sum up, they have a 6.58 ERA/6.13 FIP in this case.

If we zoom out over the past month, we see a Atlanta Braves bullpen that has struck out 10.51 batters per nine, walked 4.01 per nine, and allowed 2.23 homeruns per nine innings. They have a BABIP of 0.283 over this time period with a 5.35 ERA/5.51 FIP.

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Washington Nationals Offense:

For the season, they have a 0.708 OPS and a 0.141 isolated slugging. That’s good for a 91 wRC+. At the plate, they have struck out 0.189 and walked 0.069 percent of the time.

Over the past two weeks, the offense has hit for a 76 wRC+ on a 0.66 OPS and 0.164 isolated slugging. During this run, the Washington Nationals offense has struck out in 0.202 percent of at-bats and walked in 0.073 of them.

The numbers vary over the past month as the Nationals have walked in 0.071 and struck out in 0.194 of at-bats. This past month they have a 73 wRC+, a 0.642 OPS, and a 0.139 isolated slugging.

Against righties they have a 88 wRC+ in view of a 0.695 OPS with a 0.069 walk rate and a 0.695 strikeout rate.

The Nationals against lefties have a 98 wRC+ in view of a 0.734 OPS with a 0.069 walk rate and a 0.734 strikeout rate.

The Washington Nationals are 68-86 (16-30) straight up / straight up in the division this season for a 0.44 win percentage. For the season, they are 82-72 against the run line, winning 0.533 percent of games. Lastly, they have a 74-75-5 over/under/push record this season. Therefore they have went over 0.497 percent of the time and under at 0.503.

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Baseball Bot Prediction:

Braves: 6
Nationals: 3.5

Total: 9.5

Best Bets:

Braves -267
Over 9

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