July 12, 2024

September 22, 2023 Blue Jays at Rays Predictions & Betting Tips

A complete betting guide and predictions for the September 22, 2023 match-up between the Toronto Blue Jays and the Tampa Bay Rays.

The Tampa Bay Rays have money line betting odds of -160 at home against the Toronto Blue Jays. You can bet the money line on the Toronto Blue Jays at +135. The total for this game is set at over/under 7.5.

Baseball Bot’s system is based on the starting pitchers listed on this page. If one or both of those pitchers do not end up pitching, consider this analysis void.

Need help understanding the statistics used below? Check out our Baseball Stats Guide.

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Toronto Blue Jays +135

TOR Starter: Chris Bassitt 3.78 ERA/4.5 FIP
TOR Bullpen: 3.65 ERA/3.92 FIP
TOR OPS: 0.743

Tampa Bay Rays -160

TBR Starter: Tyler Glasnow 3.53 ERA/3.04 FIP
TBR Bullpen: 3.69 ERA/3.99 FIP
TBR OPS: 0.772

Tampa Bay Rays Pitching:

The Rays will send Tyler Glasnow to the mound at home against the Toronto Blue Jays. Tyler Glasnow has a 3.53 ERA and a 3.04 FIP in 19 starts and 109.2 innings thus far this season. To clarify, his average start lasts 5.74736842105263 innings. All things considered, he has struck out 11.98 batters per nine innings on the positive side. On the negative side, he’s walking 2.63 per nine and allowing 1.07 HR/9. Additionally, over his last 5 starts and 29 innings, Tyler Glasnow has a 4.34 ERA and a 2.85 FIP with 11.17 K/9, 2.17 BB/9. In addition, he has allowed 0.93 homeruns per nine innings.

The Rays bullpen behind him has a 3.69 ERA/3.99 FIP for the season while striking out 8.89 per nine, walking 3.2 per nine, and allowing 1 homeruns/9 with a BABIP of 0.265.

Those numbers for the last two weeks are slightly different with a 1.65 ERA/2.57 FIP. The strikeouts change to 12.31 per nine, walks to 2.02 BB/9, and homeruns go to 0.73 per nine innings with a overall BABIP of 0.218.

For the last month they have allowed 0.7 homers per nine, 2.2 walks, and struck out 11.43 batters per nine innings with a BABIP of 0.247. They have a 2.11 ERA/2.65 FIP over the past month.

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Toronto Blue Jays Offense:

Tyler Glasnow and the bullpen balance against the Blue Jays offense which presently has an OPS of 0.743 with an isolated slugging of 0.159, a team wRC+ of 106. They have a team walk percentage of 0.089 and they strikeout 0.21 percent of the time.

Over the past two weeks, the Toronto Blue Jays offense has struck out in 0.241 percent of at-bats, walked in 0.089 of ABs, slugged for a 0.145 isolated slugging, and hit for a team 0.628 OPS with a wRC+ of 73.

The numbers vary slightly for the past month with a OPS of 0.731, team isolated slugging of 0.165, and wRC+ of 102. During this time the Blue Jays have struck out 0.241 and walked in 0.089 percent of at-bats.

The Toronto Blue Jays against lefties have a 111 wRC+ in view of a 0.759 OPS with a 0.096 walk rate and a 0.191 strikeout rate.

Comparatively, against righties they have a 105 wRC+ in view of a 0.738 OPS with a 0.086 walk rate and a 0.738 strikeout rate.

The Blue Jays have an over/under record of 65-81-7, going over in 0.448 percent and under 0.552 percent. Lastly, they have a straight-up record (straight-up division record) of 85-68 (17-26) and a Run Line record of 69-84.

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MLB Statcast Match-up:
Statcast Leaderboard
Hard Hit % Barrels %
Chris Bassitt 0.351 0.088
TBR Offense 0.404 0.083
Tyler Glasnow 0.447 0.124
TOR Offense 0.387 0.082

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Toronto Blue Jays Pitching:

The Blue Jays will send Chris Bassitt out first to face Rays. He has struck out 8.05 batters per nine thus far this season while walking 2.81 per nine. He has pitched 185.2 innings and made 31 starts, an average start of 5.9741935483871 innings. Chris Bassitt has allowed 1.31 homeruns per nine innings in those starts with a 3.78 ERA/4.5 FIP all in all.

Chris Bassitt has a 3.18 ERA/4.32 FIP over his past 5 starts and 34 innings. During this stretch he has struck out 6.09 batters per nine, walked 2.38 per nine, and allowed 1.06 homers per nine innings.

He will be backed up by his bullpen which has a 3.65 ERA/3.92 FIP to date. They have walked 3.17 per nine, struck out 9.76 per nine, and allowed 1.14 homers/nine. Their BABIP currently sits at 0.289.

Over the last two weeks, the Toronto Blue Jays bullpen has a K/9 of 9.89, a BB/9 of 5.77, and a HR/9 of 0.82 with a 0.306 BABIP. To sum up, they have a 4.95 ERA/4.32 FIP in this case.

If we zoom out over the past month, we see a Toronto Blue Jays bullpen that has struck out 9.88 batters per nine, walked 3.97 per nine, and allowed 1.12 homeruns per nine innings. They have a BABIP of 0.297 over this time period with a 4.69 ERA/4.14 FIP.

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Tampa Bay Rays Offense:

For the season, they have a 0.772 OPS and a 0.185 isolated slugging. That’s good for a 116 wRC+. At the plate, they have struck out 0.231 and walked 0.084 percent of the time.

Over the past two weeks, the offense has hit for a 112 wRC+ on a 0.758 OPS and 0.187 isolated slugging. During this run, the Tampa Bay Rays offense has struck out in 0.229 percent of at-bats and walked in 0.083 of them.

The numbers vary over the past month as the Rays have walked in 0.086 and struck out in 0.24 of at-bats. This past month they have a 107 wRC+, a 0.736 OPS, and a 0.172 isolated slugging.

Against righties they have a 117 wRC+ in view of a 0.774 OPS with a 0.084 walk rate and a 0.774 strikeout rate.

The Rays against lefties have a 114 wRC+ in view of a 0.763 OPS with a 0.085 walk rate and a 0.763 strikeout rate.

The Tampa Bay Rays are 94-60 (26-18) straight up / straight up in the division this season for a 0.61 win percentage. For the season, they are 82-72 against the run line, winning 0.533 percent of games. Lastly, they have a 82-68-4 over/under/push record this season. Therefore they have went over 0.546 percent of the time and under at 0.455.

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Baseball Bot Prediction:

Blue Jays: 3.5
Rays: 4.5

Total: 8

Best Bets:

Rays -160
Over 7.5

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