May 20, 2024

September 16, 2023 Twins at White Sox Predictions & Betting Tips

A complete betting guide and predictions for the September 16, 2023 match-up between the Minnesota Twins and the Chicago White Sox.

The Chicago White Sox have money line betting odds of +180 at home against the Minnesota Twins. You can bet the money line on the Minnesota Twins at -220. The total for this game is set at over/under 9.

Baseball Bot’s system is based on the starting pitchers listed on this page. If one or both of those pitchers do not end up pitching, consider this analysis void.

Need help understanding the statistics used below? Check out our Baseball Stats Guide.

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Minnesota Twins -220

MIN Starter: Pablo Lopez 3.43 ERA/3.33 FIP
MIN Bullpen: 4 ERA/4.23 FIP
MIN OPS: 0.748

Chicago White Sox +180

CHW Starter: Touki Toussaint 5.65 ERA/5.52 FIP
CHW Bullpen: 4.84 ERA/4.51 FIP
CHW OPS: 0.68

Chicago White Sox Pitching:

The White Sox will send Touki Toussaint to the mound at home against the Minnesota Twins. Touki Toussaint has a 5.65 ERA and a 5.52 FIP in 13 starts and 71.2 innings thus far this season. To clarify, his average start lasts 5.47692307692308 innings. All things considered, he has struck out 8.92 batters per nine innings on the positive side. On the negative side, he’s walking 6.4 per nine and allowing 1.26 HR/9. Additionally, over his last 5 starts and 21.1 innings, Touki Toussaint has a 8.44 ERA and a 6.35 FIP with 8.44 K/9, 5.91 BB/9. In addition, he has allowed 1.69 homeruns per nine innings.

The White Sox bullpen behind him has a 4.84 ERA/4.51 FIP for the season while striking out 9.32 per nine, walking 4.16 per nine, and allowing 1.2 homeruns/9 with a BABIP of 0.302.

Those numbers for the last two weeks are slightly different with a 4.31 ERA/3.89 FIP. The strikeouts change to 9.94 per nine, walks to 5.13 BB/9, and homeruns go to 0.66 per nine innings with a overall BABIP of 0.295.

For the last month they have allowed 0.98 homers per nine, 4.58 walks, and struck out 9 batters per nine innings with a BABIP of 0.325. They have a 5.73 ERA/4.51 FIP over the past month.

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Minnesota Twins Offense:

Touki Toussaint and the bullpen balance against the Twins offense which presently has an OPS of 0.748 with an isolated slugging of 0.184, a team wRC+ of 106. They have a team walk percentage of 0.093 and they strikeout 0.269 percent of the time.

Over the past two weeks, the Minnesota Twins offense has struck out in 0.25 percent of at-bats, walked in 0.113 of ABs, slugged for a 0.202 isolated slugging, and hit for a team 0.828 OPS with a wRC+ of 129.

The numbers vary slightly for the past month with a OPS of 0.811, team isolated slugging of 0.208, and wRC+ of 124. During this time the Twins have struck out 0.25 and walked in 0.113 percent of at-bats.

The Minnesota Twins against lefties have a 96 wRC+ in view of a 0.713 OPS with a 0.079 walk rate and a 0.254 strikeout rate.

Comparatively, against righties they have a 110 wRC+ in view of a 0.76 OPS with a 0.097 walk rate and a 0.76 strikeout rate.

The Twins have an over/under record of 73-68-7, going over in 0.517 percent and under 0.483 percent. Lastly, they have a straight-up record (straight-up division record) of 78-70 (28-22) and a Run Line record of 75-73.

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MLB Statcast Match-up:
Statcast Leaderboard
Hard Hit % Barrels %
Pablo Lopez 0.348 0.062
CHW Offense 0.378 0.072
Touki Toussaint 0.407 0.077
MIN Offense 0.417 0.104

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Minnesota Twins Pitching:

The Twins will send Pablo Lopez out first to face White Sox. He has struck out 10.73 batters per nine thus far this season while walking 2.32 per nine. He has pitched 178.2 innings and made 29 starts, an average start of 6.1448275862069 innings. Pablo Lopez has allowed 1.06 homeruns per nine innings in those starts with a 3.43 ERA/3.33 FIP all in all.

Pablo Lopez has a 2.32 ERA/3.97 FIP over his past 5 starts and 31 innings. During this stretch he has struck out 9.58 batters per nine, walked 2.61 per nine, and allowed 1.16 homers per nine innings.

He will be backed up by his bullpen which has a 4 ERA/4.23 FIP to date. They have walked 3.55 per nine, struck out 9.16 per nine, and allowed 1.15 homers/nine. Their BABIP currently sits at 0.275.

Over the last two weeks, the Minnesota Twins bullpen has a K/9 of 9.99, a BB/9 of 2.96, and a HR/9 of 1.48 with a 0.233 BABIP. To sum up, they have a 3.51 ERA/4.41 FIP in this case.

If we zoom out over the past month, we see a Minnesota Twins bullpen that has struck out 9.06 batters per nine, walked 3.88 per nine, and allowed 1.2 homeruns per nine innings. They have a BABIP of 0.245 over this time period with a 3.79 ERA/4.46 FIP.

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Chicago White Sox Offense:

For the season, they have a 0.68 OPS and a 0.148 isolated slugging. That’s good for a 84 wRC+. At the plate, they have struck out 0.237 and walked 0.063 percent of the time.

Over the past two weeks, the offense has hit for a 60 wRC+ on a 0.599 OPS and 0.121 isolated slugging. During this run, the Chicago White Sox offense has struck out in 0.225 percent of at-bats and walked in 0.046 of them.

The numbers vary over the past month as the White Sox have walked in 0.048 and struck out in 0.232 of at-bats. This past month they have a 82 wRC+, a 0.681 OPS, and a 0.149 isolated slugging.

Against righties they have a 82 wRC+ in view of a 0.674 OPS with a 0.063 walk rate and a 0.674 strikeout rate.

The White Sox against lefties have a 90 wRC+ in view of a 0.7 OPS with a 0.063 walk rate and a 0.7 strikeout rate.

The Chicago White Sox are 56-92 (22-28) straight up / straight up in the division this season for a 0.38 win percentage. For the season, they are 72-76 against the run line, winning 0.487 percent of games. Lastly, they have a 69-73-6 over/under/push record this season. Therefore they have went over 0.487 percent of the time and under at 0.514.

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Baseball Bot Prediction:

Twins: 5.5
White Sox: 3.5

Total: 9

Best Bets:

Twins -220
Over 9

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