November 28, 2023

September 16, 2023 Reds at Mets Predictions & Betting Tips

A complete betting guide and predictions for the September 16, 2023 match-up between the Cincinnati Reds and the New York Mets.

The New York Mets have money line betting odds of -110 at home against the Cincinnati Reds. You can bet the money line on the Cincinnati Reds at -110. The total for this game is set at over/under 8.5.

Baseball Bot’s system is based on the starting pitchers listed on this page. If one or both of those pitchers do not end up pitching, consider this analysis void.

Need help understanding the statistics used below? Check out our Baseball Stats Guide.

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Cincinnati Reds -110

CIN Starter: Andrew Abbott 3.64 ERA/4.12 FIP
CIN Bullpen: 3.92 ERA/4.45 FIP
CIN OPS: 0.737

New York Mets -110

NYM Starter: Tylor Megill 5.03 ERA/5.14 FIP
NYM Bullpen: 4.54 ERA/4.66 FIP
NYM OPS: 0.727

New York Mets Pitching:

The Mets will send Tylor Megill to the mound at home against the Cincinnati Reds. Tylor Megill has a 5.03 ERA and a 5.14 FIP in 22 starts and 107.1 innings thus far this season. To clarify, his average start lasts 4.86818181818182 innings. All things considered, he has struck out 7.55 batters per nine innings on the positive side. On the negative side, he’s walking 4.44 per nine and allowing 1.34 HR/9. Additionally, over his last 4 starts and 21 innings, Tylor Megill has a 3 ERA and a 5.17 FIP with 9 K/9, 3.86 BB/9. In addition, he has allowed 1.71 homeruns per nine innings.

The Mets bullpen behind him has a 4.54 ERA/4.66 FIP for the season while striking out 9.11 per nine, walking 4.02 per nine, and allowing 1.25 homeruns/9 with a BABIP of 0.286.

Those numbers for the last two weeks are slightly different with a 5.84 ERA/4.75 FIP. The strikeouts change to 9.97 per nine, walks to 4.38 BB/9, and homeruns go to 1.22 per nine innings with a overall BABIP of 0.309.

For the last month they have allowed 0.86 homers per nine, 4.71 walks, and struck out 9.64 batters per nine innings with a BABIP of 0.294. They have a 4.5 ERA/4.25 FIP over the past month.

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Cincinnati Reds Offense:

Tylor Megill and the bullpen balance against the Reds offense which presently has an OPS of 0.737 with an isolated slugging of 0.165, a team wRC+ of 95. They have a team walk percentage of 0.089 and they strikeout 0.243 percent of the time.

Over the past two weeks, the Cincinnati Reds offense has struck out in 0.221 percent of at-bats, walked in 0.095 of ABs, slugged for a 0.196 isolated slugging, and hit for a team 0.802 OPS with a wRC+ of 113.

The numbers vary slightly for the past month with a OPS of 0.709, team isolated slugging of 0.164, and wRC+ of 88. During this time the Reds have struck out 0.221 and walked in 0.095 percent of at-bats.

The Cincinnati Reds against lefties have a 96 wRC+ in view of a 0.74 OPS with a 0.088 walk rate and a 0.238 strikeout rate.

Comparatively, against righties they have a 95 wRC+ in view of a 0.736 OPS with a 0.089 walk rate and a 0.736 strikeout rate.

The Reds have an over/under record of 72-76-1, going over in 0.487 percent and under 0.513 percent. Lastly, they have a straight-up record (straight-up division record) of 77-72 (19-27) and a Run Line record of 90-59.

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MLB Statcast Match-up:
Statcast Leaderboard
Hard Hit % Barrels %
Andrew Abbott 0.437 0.091
NYM Offense 0.403 0.084
Tylor Megill 0.431 0.097
CIN Offense 0.362 0.066

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Cincinnati Reds Pitching:

The Reds will send Andrew Abbott out first to face Mets. He has struck out 9.73 batters per nine thus far this season while walking 3.55 per nine. He has pitched 99 innings and made 18 starts, an average start of 5.5 innings. Andrew Abbott has allowed 1.27 homeruns per nine innings in those starts with a 3.64 ERA/4.12 FIP all in all.

Andrew Abbott has a 6.62 ERA/5.36 FIP over his past 4 starts and 17.2 innings. During this stretch he has struck out 9.68 batters per nine, walked 6.11 per nine, and allowed 1.53 homers per nine innings.

He will be backed up by his bullpen which has a 3.92 ERA/4.45 FIP to date. They have walked 4.13 per nine, struck out 8.66 per nine, and allowed 1.06 homers/nine. Their BABIP currently sits at 0.276.

Over the last two weeks, the Cincinnati Reds bullpen has a K/9 of 8.44, a BB/9 of 3.22, and a HR/9 of 1.07 with a 0.263 BABIP. To sum up, they have a 3.84 ERA/4.37 FIP in this case.

If we zoom out over the past month, we see a Cincinnati Reds bullpen that has struck out 8.27 batters per nine, walked 4.21 per nine, and allowed 0.83 homeruns per nine innings. They have a BABIP of 0.24 over this time period with a 3.46 ERA/4.27 FIP.

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New York Mets Offense:

For the season, they have a 0.727 OPS and a 0.17 isolated slugging. That’s good for a 102 wRC+. At the plate, they have struck out 0.217 and walked 0.089 percent of the time.

Over the past two weeks, the offense has hit for a 123 wRC+ on a 0.818 OPS and 0.234 isolated slugging. During this run, the New York Mets offense has struck out in 0.229 percent of at-bats and walked in 0.081 of them.

The numbers vary over the past month as the Mets have walked in 0.08 and struck out in 0.245 of at-bats. This past month they have a 111 wRC+, a 0.766 OPS, and a 0.199 isolated slugging.

Against righties they have a 104 wRC+ in view of a 0.734 OPS with a 0.09 walk rate and a 0.734 strikeout rate.

The Mets against lefties have a 96 wRC+ in view of a 0.707 OPS with a 0.083 walk rate and a 0.707 strikeout rate.

The New York Mets are 68-79 (19-20) straight up / straight up in the division this season for a 0.46 win percentage. For the season, they are 62-85 against the run line, winning 0.422 percent of games. Lastly, they have a 60-78-9 over/under/push record this season. Therefore they have went over 0.439 percent of the time and under at 0.561.

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Baseball Bot Prediction:

Reds: 4.5
Mets: 4.5

Total: 9

Best Bets:

Mets -110
Over 8.5

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