May 20, 2024

September 16, 2023 Red Sox at Blue Jays Predictions & Betting Tips

A complete betting guide and predictions for the September 16, 2023 match-up between the Boston Red Sox and the Toronto Blue Jays.

The Toronto Blue Jays have money line betting odds of -140 at home against the Boston Red Sox. You can bet the money line on the Boston Red Sox at +118. The total for this game is set at over/under 8.5.

Baseball Bot’s system is based on the starting pitchers listed on this page. If one or both of those pitchers do not end up pitching, consider this analysis void.

Need help understanding the statistics used below? Check out our Baseball Stats Guide.

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Boston Red Sox +118

BOS Starter: Chris Sale 4.88 ERA/3.91 FIP
BOS Bullpen: 4.33 ERA/4.26 FIP
BOS OPS: 0.763

Toronto Blue Jays -140

TOR Starter: Chris Bassitt 3.83 ERA/4.48 FIP
TOR Bullpen: 3.72 ERA/3.94 FIP
TOR OPS: 0.746

Toronto Blue Jays Pitching:

The Blue Jays will send Chris Bassitt to the mound at home against the Boston Red Sox. Chris Bassitt has a 3.83 ERA and a 4.48 FIP in 30 starts and 178.2 innings thus far this season. To clarify, his average start lasts 5.94 innings. All things considered, he has struck out 8.11 batters per nine innings on the positive side. On the negative side, he’s walking 2.77 per nine and allowing 1.31 HR/9. Additionally, over his last 5 starts and 33 innings, Chris Bassitt has a 3.27 ERA and a 4.11 FIP with 6.55 K/9, 1.91 BB/9. In addition, he has allowed 1.09 homeruns per nine innings.

The Blue Jays bullpen behind him has a 3.72 ERA/3.94 FIP for the season while striking out 9.71 per nine, walking 3.16 per nine, and allowing 1.14 homeruns/9 with a BABIP of 0.291.

Those numbers for the last two weeks are slightly different with a 6.47 ERA/4.65 FIP. The strikeouts change to 10.04 per nine, walks to 5.8 BB/9, and homeruns go to 1.12 per nine innings with a overall BABIP of 0.346.

For the last month they have allowed 1.18 homers per nine, 3.87 walks, and struck out 9.9 batters per nine innings with a BABIP of 0.308. They have a 4.73 ERA/4.21 FIP over the past month.

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Boston Red Sox Offense:

Chris Bassitt and the bullpen balance against the Red Sox offense which presently has an OPS of 0.763 with an isolated slugging of 0.172, a team wRC+ of 103. They have a team walk percentage of 0.08 and they strikeout 0.218 percent of the time.

Over the past two weeks, the Boston Red Sox offense has struck out in 0.278 percent of at-bats, walked in 0.075 of ABs, slugged for a 0.166 isolated slugging, and hit for a team 0.73 OPS with a wRC+ of 93.

The numbers vary slightly for the past month with a OPS of 0.79, team isolated slugging of 0.184, and wRC+ of 110. During this time the Red Sox have struck out 0.278 and walked in 0.075 percent of at-bats.

The Boston Red Sox against lefties have a 100 wRC+ in view of a 0.747 OPS with a 0.09 walk rate and a 0.23 strikeout rate.

Comparatively, against righties they have a 103 wRC+ in view of a 0.768 OPS with a 0.076 walk rate and a 0.768 strikeout rate.

The Red Sox have an over/under record of 79-66-3, going over in 0.544 percent and under 0.456 percent. Lastly, they have a straight-up record (straight-up division record) of 74-74 (22-22) and a Run Line record of 73-75.

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MLB Statcast Match-up:
Statcast Leaderboard
Hard Hit % Barrels %
Chris Sale 0.332 0.087
TOR Offense 0.386 0.082
Chris Bassitt 0.355 0.089
BOS Offense 0.401 0.076

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Boston Red Sox Pitching:

The Red Sox will send Chris Sale out first to face Blue Jays. He has struck out 11.01 batters per nine thus far this season while walking 2.6 per nine. He has pitched 86.2 innings and made 17 starts, an average start of 5.07058823529412 innings. Chris Sale has allowed 1.35 homeruns per nine innings in those starts with a 4.88 ERA/3.91 FIP all in all.

Chris Sale has a 5.87 ERA/4.52 FIP over his past 5 starts and 23 innings. During this stretch he has struck out 10.96 batters per nine, walked 3.91 per nine, and allowed 1.57 homers per nine innings.

He will be backed up by his bullpen which has a 4.33 ERA/4.26 FIP to date. They have walked 3.47 per nine, struck out 8.71 per nine, and allowed 1.11 homers/nine. Their BABIP currently sits at 0.314.

Over the last two weeks, the Boston Red Sox bullpen has a K/9 of 9.11, a BB/9 of 4.8, and a HR/9 of 1.33 with a 0.281 BABIP. To sum up, they have a 4.64 ERA/5.03 FIP in this case.

If we zoom out over the past month, we see a Boston Red Sox bullpen that has struck out 9.57 batters per nine, walked 4.3 per nine, and allowed 1.41 homeruns per nine innings. They have a BABIP of 0.349 over this time period with a 5.71 ERA/4.9 FIP.

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Toronto Blue Jays Offense:

For the season, they have a 0.746 OPS and a 0.159 isolated slugging. That’s good for a 107 wRC+. At the plate, they have struck out 0.209 and walked 0.089 percent of the time.

Over the past two weeks, the offense has hit for a 99 wRC+ on a 0.711 OPS and 0.146 isolated slugging. During this run, the Toronto Blue Jays offense has struck out in 0.205 percent of at-bats and walked in 0.122 of them.

The numbers vary over the past month as the Blue Jays have walked in 0.101 and struck out in 0.196 of at-bats. This past month they have a 108 wRC+, a 0.756 OPS, and a 0.178 isolated slugging.

Against righties they have a 105 wRC+ in view of a 0.74 OPS with a 0.086 walk rate and a 0.74 strikeout rate.

The Blue Jays against lefties have a 112 wRC+ in view of a 0.766 OPS with a 0.096 walk rate and a 0.766 strikeout rate.

The Toronto Blue Jays are 81-67 (13-25) straight up / straight up in the division this season for a 0.55 win percentage. For the season, they are 67-81 against the run line, winning 0.453 percent of games. Lastly, they have a 64-79-5 over/under/push record this season. Therefore they have went over 0.449 percent of the time and under at 0.551.

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Baseball Bot Prediction:

Red Sox: 4
Blue Jays: 5

Total: 9

Best Bets:

Blue Jays -140
Over 8.5

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