November 27, 2023

September 16, 2023 Rays at Orioles Predictions & Betting Tips

A complete betting guide and predictions for the September 16, 2023 match-up between the Tampa Bay Rays and the Baltimore Orioles.

The Baltimore Orioles have money line betting odds of +105 at home against the Tampa Bay Rays. You can bet the money line on the Tampa Bay Rays at -125. The total for this game is set at over/under 7.5.

Baseball Bot’s system is based on the starting pitchers listed on this page. If one or both of those pitchers do not end up pitching, consider this analysis void.

Need help understanding the statistics used below? Check out our Baseball Stats Guide.

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Tampa Bay Rays -125

TBR Starter: Tyler Glasnow 3.15 ERA/2.93 FIP
TBR Bullpen: 3.7 ERA/3.99 FIP
TBR OPS: 0.776

Baltimore Orioles +105

BAL Starter: Grayson Rodriguez 4.88 ERA/4.34 FIP
BAL Bullpen: 3.54 ERA/3.51 FIP
BAL OPS: 0.749

Baltimore Orioles Pitching:

The Orioles will send Grayson Rodriguez to the mound at home against the Tampa Bay Rays. Grayson Rodriguez has a 4.88 ERA and a 4.34 FIP in 20 starts and 103.1 innings thus far this season. To clarify, his average start lasts 5.155 innings. All things considered, he has struck out 9.58 batters per nine innings on the positive side. On the negative side, he’s walking 3.4 per nine and allowing 1.39 HR/9. Additionally, over his last 4 starts and 22.1 innings, Grayson Rodriguez has a 2.82 ERA and a 3.35 FIP with 9.67 K/9, 2.82 BB/9. In addition, he has allowed 0.81 homeruns per nine innings.

The Orioles bullpen behind him has a 3.54 ERA/3.51 FIP for the season while striking out 9.75 per nine, walking 3.3 per nine, and allowing 0.81 homeruns/9 with a BABIP of 0.307.

Those numbers for the last two weeks are slightly different with a 3.49 ERA/3.85 FIP. The strikeouts change to 6.98 per nine, walks to 1.47 BB/9, and homeruns go to 1.1 per nine innings with a overall BABIP of 0.272.

For the last month they have allowed 0.89 homers per nine, 1.87 walks, and struck out 8.38 batters per nine innings with a BABIP of 0.263. They have a 2.96 ERA/3.37 FIP over the past month.

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Tampa Bay Rays Offense:

Grayson Rodriguez and the bullpen balance against the Rays offense which presently has an OPS of 0.776 with an isolated slugging of 0.187, a team wRC+ of 117. They have a team walk percentage of 0.084 and they strikeout 0.231 percent of the time.

Over the past two weeks, the Tampa Bay Rays offense has struck out in 0.239 percent of at-bats, walked in 0.086 of ABs, slugged for a 0.191 isolated slugging, and hit for a team 0.769 OPS with a wRC+ of 114.

The numbers vary slightly for the past month with a OPS of 0.797, team isolated slugging of 0.183, and wRC+ of 123. During this time the Rays have struck out 0.239 and walked in 0.086 percent of at-bats.

The Tampa Bay Rays against lefties have a 115 wRC+ in view of a 0.767 OPS with a 0.083 walk rate and a 0.23 strikeout rate.

Comparatively, against righties they have a 118 wRC+ in view of a 0.779 OPS with a 0.084 walk rate and a 0.779 strikeout rate.

The Rays have an over/under record of 79-66-4, going over in 0.544 percent and under 0.456 percent. Lastly, they have a straight-up record (straight-up division record) of 92-57 (26-16) and a Run Line record of 80-69.

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MLB Statcast Match-up:
Statcast Leaderboard
Hard Hit % Barrels %
Tyler Glasnow 0.45 0.127
BAL Offense 0.408 0.08
Grayson Rodriguez 0.447 0.082
TBR Offense 0.406 0.085

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Tampa Bay Rays Pitching:

The Rays will send Tyler Glasnow out first to face Orioles. He has struck out 12.09 batters per nine thus far this season while walking 2.56 per nine. He has pitched 105.2 innings and made 18 starts, an average start of 5.84444444444445 innings. Tyler Glasnow has allowed 1.02 homeruns per nine innings in those starts with a 3.15 ERA/2.93 FIP all in all.

Tyler Glasnow has a 3.48 ERA/2.49 FIP over his past 5 starts and 31 innings. During this stretch he has struck out 11.32 batters per nine, walked 1.45 per nine, and allowed 0.87 homers per nine innings.

He will be backed up by his bullpen which has a 3.7 ERA/3.99 FIP to date. They have walked 3.25 per nine, struck out 8.8 per nine, and allowed 0.98 homers/nine. Their BABIP currently sits at 0.265.

Over the last two weeks, the Tampa Bay Rays bullpen has a K/9 of 12.39, a BB/9 of 2.03, and a HR/9 of 0.37 with a 0.238 BABIP. To sum up, they have a 1.11 ERA/1.78 FIP in this case.

If we zoom out over the past month, we see a Tampa Bay Rays bullpen that has struck out 11.34 batters per nine, walked 2.31 per nine, and allowed 0.48 homeruns per nine innings. They have a BABIP of 0.242 over this time period with a 1.83 ERA/2.27 FIP.

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Baltimore Orioles Offense:

For the season, they have a 0.749 OPS and a 0.171 isolated slugging. That’s good for a 106 wRC+. At the plate, they have struck out 0.22 and walked 0.084 percent of the time.

Over the past two weeks, the offense has hit for a 121 wRC+ on a 0.803 OPS and 0.184 isolated slugging. During this run, the Baltimore Orioles offense has struck out in 0.214 percent of at-bats and walked in 0.097 of them.

The numbers vary over the past month as the Orioles have walked in 0.081 and struck out in 0.209 of at-bats. This past month they have a 123 wRC+, a 0.81 OPS, and a 0.181 isolated slugging.

Against righties they have a 103 wRC+ in view of a 0.74 OPS with a 0.076 walk rate and a 0.74 strikeout rate.

The Orioles against lefties have a 113 wRC+ in view of a 0.77 OPS with a 0.099 walk rate and a 0.77 strikeout rate.

The Baltimore Orioles are 91-56 (28-18) straight up / straight up in the division this season for a 0.62 win percentage. For the season, they are 88-59 against the run line, winning 0.599 percent of games. Lastly, they have a 77-61-9 over/under/push record this season. Therefore they have went over 0.554 percent of the time and under at 0.446.

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Baseball Bot Prediction:

Rays: 4.5
Orioles: 4

Total: 8.5

Best Bets:

Rays -125
Over 7.5

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