September 21, 2023

September 16, 2023 Rangers at Guardians Predictions & Betting Tips

A complete betting guide and predictions for the September 16, 2023 match-up between the Texas Rangers and the Cleveland Guardians.

The Cleveland Guardians have money line betting odds of -125 at home against the Texas Rangers. You can bet the money line on the Texas Rangers at +105. The total for this game is set at over/under 8.

Baseball Bot’s system is based on the starting pitchers listed on this page. If one or both of those pitchers do not end up pitching, consider this analysis void.

Need help understanding the statistics used below? Check out our Baseball Stats Guide.

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Texas Rangers +105

TEX Starter: Dane Dunning 3.91 ERA/4.39 FIP
TEX Bullpen: 4.94 ERA/4.62 FIP
TEX OPS: 0.795

Cleveland Guardians -125

CLE Starter: Tanner Bibee 3.03 ERA/3.59 FIP
CLE Bullpen: 3.78 ERA/4.13 FIP
CLE OPS: 0.692

Cleveland Guardians Pitching:

The Guardians will send Tanner Bibee to the mound at home against the Texas Rangers. Tanner Bibee has a 3.03 ERA and a 3.59 FIP in 24 starts and 136.2 innings thus far this season. To clarify, his average start lasts 5.675 innings. All things considered, he has struck out 9.02 batters per nine innings on the positive side. On the negative side, he’s walking 2.96 per nine and allowing 0.86 HR/9. Additionally, over his last 5 starts and 28 innings, Tanner Bibee has a 3.54 ERA and a 3.51 FIP with 9.96 K/9, 3.21 BB/9. In addition, he has allowed 0.96 homeruns per nine innings.

The Guardians bullpen behind him has a 3.78 ERA/4.13 FIP for the season while striking out 8.94 per nine, walking 3.54 per nine, and allowing 1.09 homeruns/9 with a BABIP of 0.289.

Those numbers for the last two weeks are slightly different with a 7.25 ERA/5.54 FIP. The strikeouts change to 7.86 per nine, walks to 3.83 BB/9, and homeruns go to 1.81 per nine innings with a overall BABIP of 0.371.

For the last month they have allowed 1.43 homers per nine, 3.86 walks, and struck out 8.64 batters per nine innings with a BABIP of 0.324. They have a 4.61 ERA/4.83 FIP over the past month.

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Texas Rangers Offense:

Tanner Bibee and the bullpen balance against the Rangers offense which presently has an OPS of 0.795 with an isolated slugging of 0.189, a team wRC+ of 116. They have a team walk percentage of 0.093 and they strikeout 0.223 percent of the time.

Over the past two weeks, the Texas Rangers offense has struck out in 0.207 percent of at-bats, walked in 0.12 of ABs, slugged for a 0.221 isolated slugging, and hit for a team 0.848 OPS with a wRC+ of 130.

The numbers vary slightly for the past month with a OPS of 0.758, team isolated slugging of 0.184, and wRC+ of 106. During this time the Rangers have struck out 0.207 and walked in 0.12 percent of at-bats.

The Texas Rangers against lefties have a 119 wRC+ in view of a 0.804 OPS with a 0.1 walk rate and a 0.216 strikeout rate.

Comparatively, against righties they have a 114 wRC+ in view of a 0.792 OPS with a 0.091 walk rate and a 0.792 strikeout rate.

The Rangers have an over/under record of 78-63-6, going over in 0.551 percent and under 0.449 percent. Lastly, they have a straight-up record (straight-up division record) of 82-65 (23-19) and a Run Line record of 78-69.

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MLB Statcast Match-up:
Statcast Leaderboard
Hard Hit % Barrels %
Dane Dunning 0.417 0.081
CLE Offense 0.327 0.05
Tanner Bibee 0.387 0.064
TEX Offense 0.416 0.092

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Texas Rangers Pitching:

The Rangers will send Dane Dunning out first to face Guardians. He has struck out 7.22 batters per nine thus far this season while walking 2.84 per nine. He has pitched 152 innings and made 22 starts, an average start of 6.90909090909091 innings. Dane Dunning has allowed 1.13 homeruns per nine innings in those starts with a 3.91 ERA/4.39 FIP all in all.

Dane Dunning has a 8.14 ERA/6.8 FIP over his past 4 starts and 24.1 innings. During this stretch he has struck out 9.25 batters per nine, walked 5.18 per nine, and allowed 2.59 homers per nine innings.

He will be backed up by his bullpen which has a 4.94 ERA/4.62 FIP to date. They have walked 3.2 per nine, struck out 8.83 per nine, and allowed 1.47 homers/nine. Their BABIP currently sits at 0.283.

Over the last two weeks, the Texas Rangers bullpen has a K/9 of 9.66, a BB/9 of 3.69, and a HR/9 of 2.27 with a 0.323 BABIP. To sum up, they have a 6.25 ERA/5.82 FIP in this case.

If we zoom out over the past month, we see a Texas Rangers bullpen that has struck out 8.82 batters per nine, walked 4.18 per nine, and allowed 2.24 homeruns per nine innings. They have a BABIP of 0.303 over this time period with a 6.34 ERA/6.14 FIP.

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Cleveland Guardians Offense:

For the season, they have a 0.692 OPS and a 0.131 isolated slugging. That’s good for a 91 wRC+. At the plate, they have struck out 0.188 and walked 0.077 percent of the time.

Over the past two weeks, the offense has hit for a 98 wRC+ on a 0.713 OPS and 0.125 isolated slugging. During this run, the Cleveland Guardians offense has struck out in 0.172 percent of at-bats and walked in 0.089 of them.

The numbers vary over the past month as the Guardians have walked in 0.078 and struck out in 0.197 of at-bats. This past month they have a 90 wRC+, a 0.691 OPS, and a 0.139 isolated slugging.

Against righties they have a 95 wRC+ in view of a 0.706 OPS with a 0.079 walk rate and a 0.706 strikeout rate.

The Guardians against lefties have a 82 wRC+ in view of a 0.661 OPS with a 0.072 walk rate and a 0.661 strikeout rate.

The Cleveland Guardians are 70-78 (22-24) straight up / straight up in the division this season for a 0.47 win percentage. For the season, they are 76-72 against the run line, winning 0.514 percent of games. Lastly, they have a 63-82-3 over/under/push record this season. Therefore they have went over 0.436 percent of the time and under at 0.564.

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Baseball Bot Prediction:

Rangers: 4
Guardians: 4.5

Total: 8.5

Best Bets:

Guardians -125
Over 8

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