July 12, 2024

September 16, 2023 Phillies at Cardinals Predictions & Betting Tips

A complete betting guide and predictions for the September 16, 2023 match-up between the Philadelphia Phillies and the St. Louis Cardinals.

The St. Louis Cardinals have money line betting odds of +100 at home against the Philadelphia Phillies. You can bet the money line on the Philadelphia Phillies at -120. The total for this game is set at over/under 9.

Baseball Bot’s system is based on the starting pitchers listed on this page. If one or both of those pitchers do not end up pitching, consider this analysis void.

Need help understanding the statistics used below? Check out our Baseball Stats Guide.

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Philadelphia Phillies -120

PHI Starter: Ranger Suarez 3.93 ERA/3.92 FIP
PHI Bullpen: 3.66 ERA/3.93 FIP
PHI OPS: 0.768

St. Louis Cardinals +100

STL Starter: Miles Mikolas 4.75 ERA/4.32 FIP
STL Bullpen: 4.52 ERA/4.11 FIP
STL OPS: 0.751

St. Louis Cardinals Pitching:

The Cardinals will send Miles Mikolas to the mound at home against the Philadelphia Phillies. Miles Mikolas has a 4.75 ERA and a 4.32 FIP in 31 starts and 176.1 innings thus far this season. To clarify, his average start lasts 5.68064516129032 innings. All things considered, he has struck out 5.92 batters per nine innings on the positive side. On the negative side, he’s walking 1.84 per nine and allowing 1.12 HR/9. Additionally, over his last 5 starts and 28.2 innings, Miles Mikolas has a 7.22 ERA and a 6.71 FIP with 4.08 K/9, 2.2 BB/9. In addition, he has allowed 2.51 homeruns per nine innings.

The Cardinals bullpen behind him has a 4.52 ERA/4.11 FIP for the season while striking out 8.89 per nine, walking 3.75 per nine, and allowing 0.98 homeruns/9 with a BABIP of 0.315.

Those numbers for the last two weeks are slightly different with a 3.83 ERA/5.69 FIP. The strikeouts change to 8.08 per nine, walks to 4.68 BB/9, and homeruns go to 1.7 per nine innings with a overall BABIP of 0.234.

For the last month they have allowed 1.48 homers per nine, 3.56 walks, and struck out 7.22 batters per nine innings with a BABIP of 0.307. They have a 5.14 ERA/5.18 FIP over the past month.

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Philadelphia Phillies Offense:

Miles Mikolas and the bullpen balance against the Phillies offense which presently has an OPS of 0.768 with an isolated slugging of 0.181, a team wRC+ of 106. They have a team walk percentage of 0.087 and they strikeout 0.237 percent of the time.

Over the past two weeks, the Philadelphia Phillies offense has struck out in 0.258 percent of at-bats, walked in 0.119 of ABs, slugged for a 0.206 isolated slugging, and hit for a team 0.779 OPS with a wRC+ of 111.

The numbers vary slightly for the past month with a OPS of 0.88, team isolated slugging of 0.254, and wRC+ of 135. During this time the Phillies have struck out 0.258 and walked in 0.119 percent of at-bats.

The Philadelphia Phillies against lefties have a 109 wRC+ in view of a 0.779 OPS with a 0.082 walk rate and a 0.25 strikeout rate.

Comparatively, against righties they have a 105 wRC+ in view of a 0.763 OPS with a 0.088 walk rate and a 0.763 strikeout rate.

The Phillies have an over/under record of 67-71-9, going over in 0.486 percent and under 0.514 percent. Lastly, they have a straight-up record (straight-up division record) of 80-67 (18-24) and a Run Line record of 65-82.

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MLB Statcast Match-up:
Statcast Leaderboard
Hard Hit % Barrels %
Ranger Suarez 0.367 0.079
STL Offense 0.419 0.086
Miles Mikolas 0.422 0.091
PHI Offense 0.407 0.087

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Philadelphia Phillies Pitching:

The Phillies will send Ranger Suarez out first to face Cardinals. He has struck out 8.69 batters per nine thus far this season while walking 3.34 per nine. He has pitched 107.2 innings and made 19 starts, an average start of 5.6421052631579 innings. Ranger Suarez has allowed 1 homeruns per nine innings in those starts with a 3.93 ERA/3.92 FIP all in all.

Ranger Suarez has a 4.35 ERA/4.33 FIP over his past 2 starts and 10.1 innings. During this stretch he has struck out 13.06 batters per nine, walked 4.35 per nine, and allowed 1.74 homers per nine innings.

He will be backed up by his bullpen which has a 3.66 ERA/3.93 FIP to date. They have walked 3.6 per nine, struck out 9.62 per nine, and allowed 1.01 homers/nine. Their BABIP currently sits at 0.293.

Over the last two weeks, the Philadelphia Phillies bullpen has a K/9 of 10.06, a BB/9 of 3.91, and a HR/9 of 1.12 with a 0.256 BABIP. To sum up, they have a 2.79 ERA/4.07 FIP in this case.

If we zoom out over the past month, we see a Philadelphia Phillies bullpen that has struck out 9.62 batters per nine, walked 3.72 per nine, and allowed 0.83 homeruns per nine innings. They have a BABIP of 0.272 over this time period with a 3.21 ERA/3.7 FIP.

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St. Louis Cardinals Offense:

For the season, they have a 0.751 OPS and a 0.171 isolated slugging. That’s good for a 106 wRC+. At the plate, they have struck out 0.215 and walked 0.09 percent of the time.

Over the past two weeks, the offense has hit for a 104 wRC+ on a 0.736 OPS and 0.159 isolated slugging. During this run, the St. Louis Cardinals offense has struck out in 0.188 percent of at-bats and walked in 0.107 of them.

The numbers vary over the past month as the Cardinals have walked in 0.095 and struck out in 0.222 of at-bats. This past month they have a 85 wRC+, a 0.669 OPS, and a 0.144 isolated slugging.

Against righties they have a 108 wRC+ in view of a 0.756 OPS with a 0.09 walk rate and a 0.756 strikeout rate.

The Cardinals against lefties have a 102 wRC+ in view of a 0.737 OPS with a 0.092 walk rate and a 0.737 strikeout rate.

The St. Louis Cardinals are 65-82 (17-25) straight up / straight up in the division this season for a 0.44 win percentage. For the season, they are 71-76 against the run line, winning 0.483 percent of games. Lastly, they have a 72-69-6 over/under/push record this season. Therefore they have went over 0.51 percent of the time and under at 0.49.

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Baseball Bot Prediction:

Phillies: 4.5
Cardinals: 4

Total: 8.5

Best Bets:

Phillies -120
Under 9

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