November 28, 2023

September 16, 2023 Padres at Athletics Predictions & Betting Tips

A complete betting guide and predictions for the September 16, 2023 match-up between the San Diego Padres and the Oakland Athletics.

The Oakland Athletics have money line betting odds of +130 at home against the San Diego Padres. You can bet the money line on the San Diego Padres at -155. The total for this game is set at over/under 9.

Baseball Bot’s system is based on the starting pitchers listed on this page. If one or both of those pitchers do not end up pitching, consider this analysis void.

Need help understanding the statistics used below? Check out our Baseball Stats Guide.

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San Diego Padres -155

SDP Starter: Matt Waldron 5.55 ERA/6.1 FIP
SDP Bullpen: 3.87 ERA/4.23 FIP
SDP OPS: 0.74

Oakland Athletics +130

OAK Starter: Luis Medina 5.68 ERA/5.02 FIP
OAK Bullpen: 5.25 ERA/4.85 FIP
OAK OPS: 0.673

Oakland Athletics Pitching:

The Athletics will send Luis Medina to the mound at home against the San Diego Padres. Luis Medina has a 5.68 ERA and a 5.02 FIP in 15 starts and 95 innings thus far this season. To clarify, his average start lasts 6.33333333333333 innings. All things considered, he has struck out 8.53 batters per nine innings on the positive side. On the negative side, he’s walking 4.64 per nine and allowing 1.33 HR/9. Additionally, over his last 2 starts and 12 innings, Luis Medina has a 8.25 ERA and a 6.26 FIP with 5.25 K/9, 4.5 BB/9. In addition, he has allowed 1.5 homeruns per nine innings.

The Athletics bullpen behind him has a 5.25 ERA/4.85 FIP for the season while striking out 8.19 per nine, walking 4.84 per nine, and allowing 1.1 homeruns/9 with a BABIP of 0.299.

Those numbers for the last two weeks are slightly different with a 4.18 ERA/5.08 FIP. The strikeouts change to 6.75 per nine, walks to 5.3 BB/9, and homeruns go to 0.96 per nine innings with a overall BABIP of 0.253.

For the last month they have allowed 0.76 homers per nine, 4.19 walks, and struck out 7.25 batters per nine innings with a BABIP of 0.279. They have a 4.19 ERA/4.33 FIP over the past month.

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San Diego Padres Offense:

Luis Medina and the bullpen balance against the Padres offense which presently has an OPS of 0.74 with an isolated slugging of 0.172, a team wRC+ of 107. They have a team walk percentage of 0.106 and they strikeout 0.213 percent of the time.

Over the past two weeks, the San Diego Padres offense has struck out in 0.193 percent of at-bats, walked in 0.102 of ABs, slugged for a 0.212 isolated slugging, and hit for a team 0.803 OPS with a wRC+ of 122.

The numbers vary slightly for the past month with a OPS of 0.746, team isolated slugging of 0.175, and wRC+ of 109. During this time the Padres have struck out 0.193 and walked in 0.102 percent of at-bats.

The San Diego Padres against lefties have a 119 wRC+ in view of a 0.79 OPS with a 0.098 walk rate and a 0.217 strikeout rate.

Comparatively, against righties they have a 102 wRC+ in view of a 0.721 OPS with a 0.108 walk rate and a 0.721 strikeout rate.

The Padres have an over/under record of 63-75-10, going over in 0.46 percent and under 0.541 percent. Lastly, they have a straight-up record (straight-up division record) of 70-78 (22-24) and a Run Line record of 71-77.

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MLB Statcast Match-up:
Statcast Leaderboard
Hard Hit % Barrels %
Matt Waldron 0.415 0.122
OAK Offense 0.351 0.073
Luis Medina 0.407 0.063
SDP Offense 0.397 0.087

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San Diego Padres Pitching:

The Padres will send Matt Waldron out first to face Athletics. He has struck out 5.55 batters per nine thus far this season while walking 2.59 per nine. He has pitched 24.1 innings and made 3 starts, an average start of x innings. Matt Waldron has allowed 2.22 homeruns per nine innings in those starts with a 5.55 ERA/6.1 FIP all in all.

Matt Waldron has a 5.95 ERA/5.5 FIP over his past 2 starts and 19.2 innings. During this stretch he has struck out 5.95 batters per nine, walked 2.75 per nine, and allowed 1.83 homers per nine innings.

He will be backed up by his bullpen which has a 3.87 ERA/4.23 FIP to date. They have walked 3.68 per nine, struck out 8.88 per nine, and allowed 1.02 homers/nine. Their BABIP currently sits at 0.281.

Over the last two weeks, the San Diego Padres bullpen has a K/9 of 9.38, a BB/9 of 3.64, and a HR/9 of 0.57 with a 0.281 BABIP. To sum up, they have a 3.45 ERA/3.54 FIP in this case.

If we zoom out over the past month, we see a San Diego Padres bullpen that has struck out 9.09 batters per nine, walked 3.48 per nine, and allowed 0.71 homeruns per nine innings. They have a BABIP of 0.274 over this time period with a 3.48 ERA/3.7 FIP.

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Oakland Athletics Offense:

For the season, they have a 0.673 OPS and a 0.149 isolated slugging. That’s good for a 89 wRC+. At the plate, they have struck out 0.248 and walked 0.084 percent of the time.

Over the past two weeks, the offense has hit for a 96 wRC+ on a 0.709 OPS and 0.203 isolated slugging. During this run, the Oakland Athletics offense has struck out in 0.278 percent of at-bats and walked in 0.067 of them.

The numbers vary over the past month as the Athletics have walked in 0.068 and struck out in 0.267 of at-bats. This past month they have a 97 wRC+, a 0.709 OPS, and a 0.187 isolated slugging.

Against righties they have a 89 wRC+ in view of a 0.67 OPS with a 0.087 walk rate and a 0.67 strikeout rate.

The Athletics against lefties have a 91 wRC+ in view of a 0.681 OPS with a 0.075 walk rate and a 0.681 strikeout rate.

The Oakland Athletics are 46-101 (13-33) straight up / straight up in the division this season for a 0.31 win percentage. For the season, they are 73-74 against the run line, winning 0.497 percent of games. Lastly, they have a 78-64-5 over/under/push record this season. Therefore they have went over 0.548 percent of the time and under at 0.452.

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Baseball Bot Prediction:

Padres: 5
Athletics: 4

Total: 9

Best Bets:

Padres -155
Under 9

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