September 20, 2023

September 16, 2023 Nationals at Brewers Predictions & Betting Tips

A complete betting guide and predictions for the September 16, 2023 match-up between the Washington Nationals and the Milwaukee Brewers.

The Milwaukee Brewers have money line betting odds of -278 at home against the Washington Nationals. You can bet the money line on the Washington Nationals at +222. The total for this game is set at over/under 8.

Baseball Bot’s system is based on the starting pitchers listed on this page. If one or both of those pitchers do not end up pitching, consider this analysis void.

Need help understanding the statistics used below? Check out our Baseball Stats Guide.

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Washington Nationals +222

WSN Starter: Trevor Williams 5.44 ERA/6.06 FIP
WSN Bullpen: 5.01 ERA/4.98 FIP
WSN OPS: 0.707

Milwaukee Brewers -278

MIL Starter: Corbin Burnes 3.47 ERA/3.9 FIP
MIL Bullpen: 3.6 ERA/4.02 FIP
MIL OPS: 0.698

Milwaukee Brewers Pitching:

The Brewers will send Corbin Burnes to the mound at home against the Washington Nationals. Corbin Burnes has a 3.47 ERA and a 3.9 FIP in 29 starts and 179 innings thus far this season. To clarify, his average start lasts 6.17241379310345 innings. All things considered, he has struck out 9.1 batters per nine innings on the positive side. On the negative side, he’s walking 3.02 per nine and allowing 1.06 HR/9. Additionally, over his last 5 starts and 34 innings, Corbin Burnes has a 2.91 ERA and a 3.82 FIP with 9.26 K/9, 1.85 BB/9. In addition, he has allowed 1.32 homeruns per nine innings.

The Brewers bullpen behind him has a 3.6 ERA/4.02 FIP for the season while striking out 9.33 per nine, walking 3.39 per nine, and allowing 1.06 homeruns/9 with a BABIP of 0.277.

Those numbers for the last two weeks are slightly different with a 1.96 ERA/2.98 FIP. The strikeouts change to 10.37 per nine, walks to 3.52 BB/9, and homeruns go to 0.59 per nine innings with a overall BABIP of 0.263.

For the last month they have allowed 0.71 homers per nine, 3.45 walks, and struck out 10.45 batters per nine innings with a BABIP of 0.263. They have a 2.54 ERA/3.22 FIP over the past month.

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Washington Nationals Offense:

Corbin Burnes and the bullpen balance against the Nationals offense which presently has an OPS of 0.707 with an isolated slugging of 0.14, a team wRC+ of 92. They have a team walk percentage of 0.069 and they strikeout 0.189 percent of the time.

Over the past two weeks, the Washington Nationals offense has struck out in 0.187 percent of at-bats, walked in 0.071 of ABs, slugged for a 0.136 isolated slugging, and hit for a team 0.649 OPS with a wRC+ of 74.

The numbers vary slightly for the past month with a OPS of 0.645, team isolated slugging of 0.126, and wRC+ of 74. During this time the Nationals have struck out 0.187 and walked in 0.071 percent of at-bats.

The Washington Nationals against lefties have a 100 wRC+ in view of a 0.739 OPS with a 0.07 walk rate and a 0.183 strikeout rate.

Comparatively, against righties they have a 88 wRC+ in view of a 0.692 OPS with a 0.068 walk rate and a 0.692 strikeout rate.

The Nationals have an over/under record of 71-72-5, going over in 0.497 percent and under 0.503 percent. Lastly, they have a straight-up record (straight-up division record) of 65-83 (16-29) and a Run Line record of 80-68.

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MLB Statcast Match-up:
Statcast Leaderboard
Hard Hit % Barrels %
Trevor Williams 0.38 0.107
MIL Offense 0.377 0.075
Corbin Burnes 0.333 0.055
WSN Offense 0.349 0.058

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Washington Nationals Pitching:

The Nationals will send Trevor Williams out first to face Brewers. He has struck out 6.86 batters per nine thus far this season while walking 3.17 per nine. He has pitched 139 innings and made 28 starts, an average start of 4.96428571428571 innings. Trevor Williams has allowed 2.2 homeruns per nine innings in those starts with a 5.44 ERA/6.06 FIP all in all.

Trevor Williams has a 6.75 ERA/6.82 FIP over his past 4 starts and 21.1 innings. During this stretch he has struck out 6.75 batters per nine, walked 3.8 per nine, and allowed 2.53 homers per nine innings.

He will be backed up by his bullpen which has a 5.01 ERA/4.98 FIP to date. They have walked 3.72 per nine, struck out 7.8 per nine, and allowed 1.42 homers/nine. Their BABIP currently sits at 0.298.

Over the last two weeks, the Washington Nationals bullpen has a K/9 of 7.3, a BB/9 of 3.47, and a HR/9 of 0.73 with a 0.288 BABIP. To sum up, they have a 3.28 ERA/4.03 FIP in this case.

If we zoom out over the past month, we see a Washington Nationals bullpen that has struck out 8.1 batters per nine, walked 3.14 per nine, and allowed 1.74 homeruns per nine innings. They have a BABIP of 0.311 over this time period with a 5.23 ERA/5.14 FIP.

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Milwaukee Brewers Offense:

For the season, they have a 0.698 OPS and a 0.143 isolated slugging. That’s good for a 90 wRC+. At the plate, they have struck out 0.236 and walked 0.097 percent of the time.

Over the past two weeks, the offense has hit for a 106 wRC+ on a 0.753 OPS and 0.145 isolated slugging. During this run, the Milwaukee Brewers offense has struck out in 0.25 percent of at-bats and walked in 0.106 of them.

The numbers vary over the past month as the Brewers have walked in 0.105 and struck out in 0.223 of at-bats. This past month they have a 103 wRC+, a 0.743 OPS, and a 0.137 isolated slugging.

Against righties they have a 88 wRC+ in view of a 0.689 OPS with a 0.098 walk rate and a 0.689 strikeout rate.

The Brewers against lefties have a 97 wRC+ in view of a 0.724 OPS with a 0.092 walk rate and a 0.724 strikeout rate.

The Milwaukee Brewers are 83-64 (26-16) straight up / straight up in the division this season for a 0.56 win percentage. For the season, they are 72-75 against the run line, winning 0.49 percent of games. Lastly, they have a 66-77-4 over/under/push record this season. Therefore they have went over 0.463 percent of the time and under at 0.537.

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Baseball Bot Prediction:

Nationals: 3
Brewers: 5.5

Total: 8.5

Best Bets:

Brewers -278
Over 8

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