May 20, 2024

September 16, 2023 Giants at Rockies Predictions & Betting Tips

A complete betting guide and predictions for the September 16, 2023 match-up between the San Francisco Giants and the Colorado Rockies.

The Colorado Rockies have money line betting odds of +140 at home against the San Francisco Giants. You can bet the money line on the San Francisco Giants at -165. The total for this game is set at over/under 12.

Baseball Bot’s system is based on the starting pitchers listed on this page. If one or both of those pitchers do not end up pitching, consider this analysis void.

Need help understanding the statistics used below? Check out our Baseball Stats Guide.

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San Francisco Giants -165

SFG Starter: Keaton Winn 3.55 ERA/3.84 FIP
SFG Bullpen: 3.8 ERA/3.8 FIP
SFG OPS: 0.705

Colorado Rockies +140

COL Starter: Kyle Freeland 5.07 ERA/5.34 FIP
COL Bullpen: 5.28 ERA/4.6 FIP
COL OPS: 0.709

Colorado Rockies Pitching:

The Rockies will send Kyle Freeland to the mound at home against the San Francisco Giants. Kyle Freeland has a 5.07 ERA and a 5.34 FIP in 28 starts and 152.2 innings thus far this season. To clarify, his average start lasts 5.43571428571429 innings. All things considered, he has struck out 5.48 batters per nine innings on the positive side. On the negative side, he’s walking 2.42 per nine and allowing 1.71 HR/9. Additionally, over his last 5 starts and 28.2 innings, Kyle Freeland has a 5.65 ERA and a 5.39 FIP with 5.02 K/9 and a1.57 BB/9. In addition, he has allowed 1.88 homeruns per nine innings.

The Rockies bullpen behind him has a 5.28 ERA/4.6 FIP for the season while striking out 8.16 per nine, walking 4.29 per nine, and allowing 1.05 homeruns/9 with a BABIP of 0.321.

Those numbers for the last two weeks are slightly different with a 5.36 ERA/4.74 FIP. The strikeouts change to 8.14 per nine, walks to 5.57 BB/9, and homeruns go to 0.64 per nine innings with a overall BABIP of 0.325.

For the last month they have allowed 1.16 homers per nine, 4.66 walks, and struck out 7.31 batters per nine innings with a BABIP of 0.359. They have a 7.2 ERA/5.23 FIP over the past month.

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San Francisco Giants Offense:

Kyle Freeland and the bullpen balance against the Giants offense which presently has an OPS of 0.705 with an isolated slugging of 0.15, a team wRC+ of 95. They have a team walk percentage of 0.087 and they strikeout 0.246 percent of the time.

Over the past two weeks, the San Francisco Giants offense has struck out in 0.206 percent of at-bats, walked in 0.094 of ABs, slugged for a 0.17 isolated slugging, and hit for a team 0.752 OPS with a wRC+ of 108.

The numbers vary slightly for the past month with a OPS of 0.719, team isolated slugging of 0.151, and wRC+ of 99. During this time the Giants have struck out 0.206 and walked in 0.094 percent of at-bats.

The San Francisco Giants against lefties have a 90 wRC+ in view of a 0.687 OPS with a 0.069 walk rate and a 0.255 strikeout rate.

Comparatively, against righties they have a 97 wRC+ in view of a 0.713 OPS with a 0.095 walk rate and a 0.713 strikeout rate.

The Giants have an over/under record of 64-80-3, going over in 0.446 percent and under 0.554 percent. Lastly, they have a straight-up record (straight-up division record) of 75-72 (22-15) and a Run Line record of 68-79.

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MLB Statcast Match-up:
Statcast Leaderboard
Hard Hit % Barrels %
Keaton Winn 0.469 0.071
COL Offense 0.366 0.075
Kyle Freeland 0.437 0.089
SFG Offense 0.392 0.085

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San Francisco Giants Pitching:

The Giants will send Keaton Winn out first to face Rockies. He has struck out 6.82 batters per nine thus far this season while walking 1.64 per nine. He has pitched 33 innings and made 3 starts, an average start of x innings. Keaton Winn has allowed 0.82 homeruns per nine innings in those starts with a 3.55 ERA/3.84 FIP all in all.

Keaton Winn has a 2.45 ERA/1.53 FIP over his past 1 starts and 11 innings. During this stretch he has struck out 9 batters per nine, walked 0.82 per nine, and allowed 0 homers per nine innings.

He will be backed up by his bullpen which has a 3.8 ERA/3.8 FIP to date. They have walked 2.93 per nine, struck out 8.95 per nine, and allowed 0.97 homers/nine. Their BABIP currently sits at 0.3.

Over the last two weeks, the San Francisco Giants bullpen has a K/9 of 6.95, a BB/9 of 2.18, and a HR/9 of 0.99 with a 0.315 BABIP. To sum up, they have a 3.97 ERA/3.88 FIP in this case.

If we zoom out over the past month, we see a San Francisco Giants bullpen that has struck out 8.32 batters per nine, walked 3.31 per nine, and allowed 1.27 homeruns per nine innings. They have a BABIP of 0.318 over this time period with a 4.16 ERA/4.5 FIP.

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Colorado Rockies Offense:

For the season, they have a 0.709 OPS and a 0.152 isolated slugging. That’s good for a 77 wRC+. At the plate, they have struck out 0.253 and walked 0.074 percent of the time.

Over the past two weeks, the offense has hit for a 72 wRC+ on a 0.684 OPS and 0.132 isolated slugging. During this run, the Colorado Rockies offense has struck out in 0.247 percent of at-bats and walked in 0.082 of them.

The numbers vary over the past month as the Rockies have walked in 0.08 and struck out in 0.248 of at-bats. This past month they have a 76 wRC+, a 0.706 OPS, and a 0.152 isolated slugging.

Against righties they have a 81 wRC+ in view of a 0.723 OPS with a 0.074 walk rate and a 0.723 strikeout rate.

The Rockies against lefties have a 66 wRC+ in view of a 0.672 OPS with a 0.07 walk rate and a 0.672 strikeout rate.

The Colorado Rockies are 54-92 (10-32) straight up / straight up in the division this season for a 0.37 win percentage. For the season, they are 71-75 against the run line, winning 0.486 percent of games. Lastly, they have a 66-79-1 over/under/push record this season. Therefore they have went over 0.456 percent of the time and under at 0.545.

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Baseball Bot Prediction:

Giants: 6.5
Rockies: 5

Total: 11.5

Best Bets:

Giants -165
Under 12

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