July 12, 2024

September 16, 2023 Dodgers at Mariners Predictions & Betting Tips

A complete betting guide and predictions for the September 16, 2023 match-up between the Los Angeles Dodgers and the Seattle Mariners.

The Seattle Mariners have money line betting odds of +122 at home against the Los Angeles Dodgers. You can bet the money line on the Los Angeles Dodgers at -145. The total for this game is set at over/under 8.

Baseball Bot’s system is based on the starting pitchers listed on this page. If one or both of those pitchers do not end up pitching, consider this analysis void.

Need help understanding the statistics used below? Check out our Baseball Stats Guide.

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Los Angeles Dodgers -145

LAD Starter: Clayton Kershaw 2.61 ERA/4.1 FIP
LAD Bullpen: 3.65 ERA/3.83 FIP
LAD OPS: 0.8

Seattle Mariners +122

SEA Starter: Bryce Miller 4.05 ERA/3.72 FIP
SEA Bullpen: 3.56 ERA/3.79 FIP
SEA OPS: 0.741

Seattle Mariners Pitching:

The Mariners will send Bryce Miller to the mound at home against the Los Angeles Dodgers. Bryce Miller has a 4.05 ERA and a 3.72 FIP in 22 starts and 117.2 innings thus far this season. To clarify, his average start lasts 5.32727272727273 innings. All things considered, he has struck out 8.34 batters per nine innings on the positive side. On the negative side, he’s walking 1.76 per nine and allowing 1.07 HR/9. Additionally, over his last 5 starts and 26.1 innings, Bryce Miller has a 4.1 ERA and a 3 FIP with 7.52 K/9, 1.37 BB/9. In addition, he has allowed 0.34 homeruns per nine innings.

The Mariners bullpen behind him has a 3.56 ERA/3.79 FIP for the season while striking out 10.1 per nine, walking 3.43 per nine, and allowing 1.03 homeruns/9 with a BABIP of 0.304.

Those numbers for the last two weeks are slightly different with a 4.86 ERA/6.13 FIP. The strikeouts change to 9.52 per nine, walks to 3.88 BB/9, and homeruns go to 2.33 per nine innings with a overall BABIP of 0.282.

For the last month they have allowed 1.53 homers per nine, 2.97 walks, and struck out 10.15 batters per nine innings with a BABIP of 0.313. They have a 4.02 ERA/4.43 FIP over the past month.

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Los Angeles Dodgers Offense:

Bryce Miller and the bullpen balance against the Dodgers offense which presently has an OPS of 0.8 with an isolated slugging of 0.201, a team wRC+ of 118. They have a team walk percentage of 0.105 and they strikeout 0.217 percent of the time.

Over the past two weeks, the Los Angeles Dodgers offense has struck out in 0.218 percent of at-bats, walked in 0.111 of ABs, slugged for a 0.172 isolated slugging, and hit for a team 0.798 OPS with a wRC+ of 119.

The numbers vary slightly for the past month with a OPS of 0.821, team isolated slugging of 0.192, and wRC+ of 124. During this time the Dodgers have struck out 0.218 and walked in 0.111 percent of at-bats.

The Los Angeles Dodgers against lefties have a 116 wRC+ in view of a 0.794 OPS with a 0.107 walk rate and a 0.222 strikeout rate.

Comparatively, against righties they have a 118 wRC+ in view of a 0.802 OPS with a 0.104 walk rate and a 0.802 strikeout rate.

The Dodgers have an over/under record of 85-54-7, going over in 0.606 percent and under 0.394 percent. Lastly, they have a straight-up record (straight-up division record) of 89-57 (27-14) and a Run Line record of 82-64.

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MLB Statcast Match-up:
Statcast Leaderboard
Hard Hit % Barrels %
Clayton Kershaw 0.378 0.085
SEA Offense 0.411 0.098
Bryce Miller 0.422 0.106
LAD Offense 0.411 0.094

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Los Angeles Dodgers Pitching:

The Dodgers will send Clayton Kershaw out first to face Mariners. He has struck out 9.43 batters per nine thus far this season while walking 2.61 per nine. He has pitched 117.1 innings and made 21 starts, an average start of 5.57619047619048 innings. Clayton Kershaw has allowed 1.38 homeruns per nine innings in those starts with a 2.61 ERA/4.1 FIP all in all.

Clayton Kershaw has a 3.75 ERA/7.84 FIP over his past 3 starts and 12 innings. During this stretch he has struck out 9 batters per nine, walked 6 per nine, and allowed 3 homers per nine innings.

He will be backed up by his bullpen which has a 3.65 ERA/3.83 FIP to date. They have walked 3.14 per nine, struck out 9.09 per nine, and allowed 0.95 homers/nine. Their BABIP currently sits at 0.286.

Over the last two weeks, the Los Angeles Dodgers bullpen has a K/9 of 9.5, a BB/9 of 1.94, and a HR/9 of 1.08 with a 0.252 BABIP. To sum up, they have a 2.81 ERA/3.5 FIP in this case.

If we zoom out over the past month, we see a Los Angeles Dodgers bullpen that has struck out 8.61 batters per nine, walked 1.99 per nine, and allowed 0.83 homeruns per nine innings. They have a BABIP of 0.259 over this time period with a 2.32 ERA/3.37 FIP.

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Seattle Mariners Offense:

For the season, they have a 0.741 OPS and a 0.174 isolated slugging. That’s good for a 108 wRC+. At the plate, they have struck out 0.258 and walked 0.088 percent of the time.

Over the past two weeks, the offense has hit for a 103 wRC+ on a 0.731 OPS and 0.183 isolated slugging. During this run, the Seattle Mariners offense has struck out in 0.247 percent of at-bats and walked in 0.062 of them.

The numbers vary over the past month as the Mariners have walked in 0.082 and struck out in 0.25 of at-bats. This past month they have a 132 wRC+, a 0.83 OPS, and a 0.205 isolated slugging.

Against righties they have a 107 wRC+ in view of a 0.74 OPS with a 0.088 walk rate and a 0.74 strikeout rate.

The Mariners against lefties have a 108 wRC+ in view of a 0.742 OPS with a 0.08 walk rate and a 0.742 strikeout rate.

The Seattle Mariners are 81-66 (26-13) straight up / straight up in the division this season for a 0.55 win percentage. For the season, they are 71-76 against the run line, winning 0.483 percent of games. Lastly, they have a 75-69-3 over/under/push record this season. Therefore they have went over 0.52 percent of the time and under at 0.48.

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Baseball Bot Prediction:

Dodgers: 4.5
Mariners: 4

Total: 8.5

Best Bets:

Dodgers -145
Over 8

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