April 14, 2024

September 16, 2023 Cubs at Diamondbacks Predictions & Betting Tips

A complete betting guide and predictions for the September 16, 2023 match-up between the Chicago Cubs and the Arizona Diamondbacks.

The Arizona Diamondbacks have money line betting odds of -105 at home against the Chicago Cubs. You can bet the money line on the Chicago Cubs at -115. The total for this game is set at over/under 9.

Baseball Bot’s system is based on the starting pitchers listed on this page. If one or both of those pitchers do not end up pitching, consider this analysis void.

Need help understanding the statistics used below? Check out our Baseball Stats Guide.

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Chicago Cubs -115

CHC Starter: Kyle Hendricks 3.71 ERA/3.9 FIP
CHC Bullpen: 3.96 ERA/4.06 FIP
CHC OPS: 0.748

Arizona Diamondbacks -105

ARI Starter: Zach Davies 6.81 ERA/4.63 FIP
ARI Bullpen: 4.5 ERA/4.45 FIP
ARI OPS: 0.735

Arizona Diamondbacks Pitching:

The Diamondbacks will send Zach Davies to the mound at home against the Chicago Cubs. Zach Davies has a 6.81 ERA and a 4.63 FIP in 16 starts and 75.1 innings thus far this season. To clarify, his average start lasts 4.69375 innings. All things considered, he has struck out 7.65 batters per nine innings on the positive side. On the negative side, he’s walking 4.3 per nine and allowing 1.08 HR/9. Additionally, over his last 4 starts and 18 innings, Zach Davies has a 5 ERA and a 4.54 FIP with 9 K/9, 4.5 BB/9. In addition, he has allowed 1 homeruns per nine innings.

The Diamondbacks bullpen behind him has a 4.5 ERA/4.45 FIP for the season while striking out 8.94 per nine, walking 3.64 per nine, and allowing 1.26 homeruns/9 with a BABIP of 0.292.

Those numbers for the last two weeks are slightly different with a 2.93 ERA/4.82 FIP. The strikeouts change to 7.64 per nine, walks to 2.6 BB/9, and homeruns go to 1.46 per nine innings with a overall BABIP of 0.223.

For the last month they have allowed 1.47 homers per nine, 3.34 walks, and struck out 7.91 batters per nine innings with a BABIP of 0.243. They have a 3.83 ERA/4.96 FIP over the past month.

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Chicago Cubs Offense:

Zach Davies and the bullpen balance against the Cubs offense which presently has an OPS of 0.748 with an isolated slugging of 0.165, a team wRC+ of 104. They have a team walk percentage of 0.09 and they strikeout 0.226 percent of the time.

Over the past two weeks, the Chicago Cubs offense has struck out in 0.191 percent of at-bats, walked in 0.072 of ABs, slugged for a 0.179 isolated slugging, and hit for a team 0.779 OPS with a wRC+ of 110.

The numbers vary slightly for the past month with a OPS of 0.731, team isolated slugging of 0.166, and wRC+ of 98. During this time the Cubs have struck out 0.191 and walked in 0.072 percent of at-bats.

The Chicago Cubs against lefties have a 105 wRC+ in view of a 0.759 OPS with a 0.078 walk rate and a 0.232 strikeout rate.

Comparatively, against righties they have a 103 wRC+ in view of a 0.743 OPS with a 0.095 walk rate and a 0.743 strikeout rate.

The Cubs have an over/under record of 71-71-6, going over in 0.5 percent and under 0.5 percent. Lastly, they have a straight-up record (straight-up division record) of 78-70 (28-18) and a Run Line record of 76-72.

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MLB Statcast Match-up:
Statcast Leaderboard
Hard Hit % Barrels %
Kyle Hendricks 0.307 0.065
ARI Offense 0.381 0.063
Zach Davies 0.429 0.08
CHC Offense 0.382 0.076

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Chicago Cubs Pitching:

The Cubs will send Kyle Hendricks out first to face Diamondbacks. He has struck out 6.16 batters per nine thus far this season while walking 1.56 per nine. He has pitched 121.1 innings and made 21 starts, an average start of 5.76666666666667 innings. Kyle Hendricks has allowed 0.96 homeruns per nine innings in those starts with a 3.71 ERA/3.9 FIP all in all.

Kyle Hendricks has a 2.79 ERA/3.26 FIP over his past 5 starts and 29 innings. During this stretch he has struck out 6.83 batters per nine, walked 1.55 per nine, and allowed 0.62 homers per nine innings.

He will be backed up by his bullpen which has a 3.96 ERA/4.06 FIP to date. They have walked 4.11 per nine, struck out 9.69 per nine, and allowed 0.98 homers/nine. Their BABIP currently sits at 0.287.

Over the last two weeks, the Chicago Cubs bullpen has a K/9 of 10.8, a BB/9 of 5.15, and a HR/9 of 1.47 with a 0.322 BABIP. To sum up, they have a 4.66 ERA/5.03 FIP in this case.

If we zoom out over the past month, we see a Chicago Cubs bullpen that has struck out 10.5 batters per nine, walked 4.6 per nine, and allowed 0.7 homeruns per nine innings. They have a BABIP of 0.292 over this time period with a 3.9 ERA/3.81 FIP.

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Arizona Diamondbacks Offense:

For the season, they have a 0.735 OPS and a 0.162 isolated slugging. That’s good for a 99 wRC+. At the plate, they have struck out 0.207 and walked 0.087 percent of the time.

Over the past two weeks, the offense has hit for a 82 wRC+ on a 0.665 OPS and 0.131 isolated slugging. During this run, the Arizona Diamondbacks offense has struck out in 0.217 percent of at-bats and walked in 0.087 of them.

The numbers vary over the past month as the Diamondbacks have walked in 0.091 and struck out in 0.223 of at-bats. This past month they have a 88 wRC+, a 0.692 OPS, and a 0.141 isolated slugging.

Against righties they have a 101 wRC+ in view of a 0.745 OPS with a 0.09 walk rate and a 0.745 strikeout rate.

The Diamondbacks against lefties have a 92 wRC+ in view of a 0.709 OPS with a 0.079 walk rate and a 0.709 strikeout rate.

The Arizona Diamondbacks are 77-72 (27-23) straight up / straight up in the division this season for a 0.52 win percentage. For the season, they are 81-68 against the run line, winning 0.544 percent of games. Lastly, they have a 65-77-7 over/under/push record this season. Therefore they have went over 0.46 percent of the time and under at 0.54.

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Baseball Bot Prediction:

Cubs: 5
Diamondbacks: 4.5

Total: 9.5

Best Bets:

Cubs -115
Over 9

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