November 28, 2023

September 16, 2023 Astros at Royals Predictions & Betting Tips

A complete betting guide and predictions for the September 16, 2023 match-up between the Houston Astros and the Kansas City Royals.

The Kansas City Royals have money line betting odds of +130 at home against the Houston Astros. You can bet the money line on the Houston Astros at -155. The total for this game is set at over/under 9.5.

Baseball Bot’s system is based on the starting pitchers listed on this page. If one or both of those pitchers do not end up pitching, consider this analysis void.

Need help understanding the statistics used below? Check out our Baseball Stats Guide.

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Houston Astros -155

HOU Starter: J.P. France 3.61 ERA/4.73 FIP
HOU Bullpen: 3.7 ERA/4.2 FIP
HOU OPS: 0.766

Kansas City Royals +130

KCR Starter: Cole Ragans 3.01 ERA/2.98 FIP
KCR Bullpen: 5.2 ERA/4.59 FIP
KCR OPS: 0.697

Kansas City Royals Pitching:

The Royals will send Cole Ragans to the mound at home against the Houston Astros. Cole Ragans has a 3.01 ERA and a 2.98 FIP in 9 starts and 77.2 innings thus far this season. To clarify, his average start lasts x innings. All things considered, he has struck out 10.78 batters per nine innings on the positive side. On the negative side, he’s walking 3.59 per nine and allowing 0.58 HR/9. Additionally, over his last 5 starts and 30.2 innings, Cole Ragans has a 1.47 ERA and a 1.5 FIP with 12.33 K/9, 2.64 BB/9. In addition, he has allowed 0 homeruns per nine innings.

The Royals bullpen behind him has a 5.2 ERA/4.59 FIP for the season while striking out 9.22 per nine, walking 4.35 per nine, and allowing 1.2 homeruns/9 with a BABIP of 0.312.

Those numbers for the last two weeks are slightly different with a 4.35 ERA/4.34 FIP. The strikeouts change to 7.65 per nine, walks to 3 BB/9, and homeruns go to 1.2 per nine innings with a overall BABIP of 0.282.

For the last month they have allowed 1.73 homers per nine, 3.54 walks, and struck out 8.89 batters per nine innings with a BABIP of 0.29. They have a 5.02 ERA/5.15 FIP over the past month.

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Houston Astros Offense:

Cole Ragans and the bullpen balance against the Astros offense which presently has an OPS of 0.766 with an isolated slugging of 0.175, a team wRC+ of 111. They have a team walk percentage of 0.088 and they strikeout 0.198 percent of the time.

Over the past two weeks, the Houston Astros offense has struck out in 0.157 percent of at-bats, walked in 0.082 of ABs, slugged for a 0.228 isolated slugging, and hit for a team 0.866 OPS with a wRC+ of 137.

The numbers vary slightly for the past month with a OPS of 0.865, team isolated slugging of 0.21, and wRC+ of 137. During this time the Astros have struck out 0.157 and walked in 0.082 percent of at-bats.

The Houston Astros against lefties have a 123 wRC+ in view of a 0.811 OPS with a 0.086 walk rate and a 0.182 strikeout rate.

Comparatively, against righties they have a 106 wRC+ in view of a 0.747 OPS with a 0.089 walk rate and a 0.747 strikeout rate.

The Astros have an over/under record of 77-67-4, going over in 0.534 percent and under 0.466 percent. Lastly, they have a straight-up record (straight-up division record) of 83-65 (30-19) and a Run Line record of 75-73.

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MLB Statcast Match-up:
Statcast Leaderboard
Hard Hit % Barrels %
J.P. France 0.384 0.085
KCR Offense 0.41 0.081
Cole Ragans 0.348 0.048
HOU Offense 0.384 0.081

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Houston Astros Pitching:

The Astros will send J.P. France out first to face Royals. He has struck out 6.8 batters per nine thus far this season while walking 2.98 per nine. He has pitched 127 innings and made 21 starts, an average start of 6.04761904761905 innings. J.P. France has allowed 1.35 homeruns per nine innings in those starts with a 3.61 ERA/4.73 FIP all in all.

J.P. France has a 7.2 ERA/7.66 FIP over his past 5 starts and 25 innings. During this stretch he has struck out 8.28 batters per nine, walked 4.32 per nine, and allowed 3.24 homers per nine innings.

He will be backed up by his bullpen which has a 3.7 ERA/4.2 FIP to date. They have walked 3.74 per nine, struck out 10.11 per nine, and allowed 1.2 homers/nine. Their BABIP currently sits at 0.291.

Over the last two weeks, the Houston Astros bullpen has a K/9 of 9.3, a BB/9 of 3.18, and a HR/9 of 1.59 with a 0.279 BABIP. To sum up, they have a 3.86 ERA/4.7 FIP in this case.

If we zoom out over the past month, we see a Houston Astros bullpen that has struck out 9.19 batters per nine, walked 3 per nine, and allowed 1.41 homeruns per nine innings. They have a BABIP of 0.307 over this time period with a 4.13 ERA/4.44 FIP.

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Kansas City Royals Offense:

For the season, they have a 0.697 OPS and a 0.153 isolated slugging. That’s good for a 85 wRC+. At the plate, they have struck out 0.234 and walked 0.068 percent of the time.

Over the past two weeks, the offense has hit for a 107 wRC+ on a 0.771 OPS and 0.18 isolated slugging. During this run, the Kansas City Royals offense has struck out in 0.257 percent of at-bats and walked in 0.09 of them.

The numbers vary over the past month as the Royals have walked in 0.076 and struck out in 0.24 of at-bats. This past month they have a 86 wRC+, a 0.702 OPS, and a 0.163 isolated slugging.

Against righties they have a 85 wRC+ in view of a 0.694 OPS with a 0.066 walk rate and a 0.694 strikeout rate.

The Royals against lefties have a 87 wRC+ in view of a 0.705 OPS with a 0.07 walk rate and a 0.705 strikeout rate.

The Kansas City Royals are 47-101 (17-29) straight up / straight up in the division this season for a 0.32 win percentage. For the season, they are 61-87 against the run line, winning 0.412 percent of games. Lastly, they have a 71-72-5 over/under/push record this season. Therefore they have went over 0.497 percent of the time and under at 0.503.

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Baseball Bot Prediction:

Astros: 5
Royals: 4.5

Total: 9.5

Best Bets:

Astros -155
Over 9.5

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