November 28, 2023

September 15, 2023 Rays at Orioles Predictions & Betting Tips

A complete betting guide and predictions for the September 15, 2023 match-up between the Tampa Bay Rays and the Baltimore Orioles.

The Baltimore Orioles have money line betting odds of +118 at home against the Tampa Bay Rays. You can bet the money line on the Tampa Bay Rays at -140. The total for this game is set at over/under 8.5.

Baseball Bot’s system is based on the starting pitchers listed on this page. If one or both of those pitchers do not end up pitching, consider this analysis void.

Need help understanding the statistics used below? Check out our Baseball Stats Guide.

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Tampa Bay Rays -140

TBR Starter: Zach Eflin 3.53 ERA/3.08 FIP
TBR Bullpen: 3.71 ERA/4 FIP
TBR OPS: 0.775

Baltimore Orioles +118

BAL Starter: Jack Flaherty 4.98 ERA/4.4 FIP
BAL Bullpen: 3.5 ERA/3.48 FIP
BAL OPS: 0.752

Baltimore Orioles Pitching:

The Orioles will send Jack Flaherty to the mound at home against the Tampa Bay Rays. Jack Flaherty has a 4.98 ERA and a 4.4 FIP in 26 starts and 137.1 innings thus far this season. To clarify, his average start lasts 5.27307692307692 innings. All things considered, he has struck out 9.04 batters per nine innings on the positive side. On the negative side, he’s walking 4.26 per nine and allowing 1.05 HR/9. Additionally, over his last 3 starts and 13.2 innings, Jack Flaherty has a 7.24 ERA and a 5.82 FIP with 8.56 K/9, 1.98 BB/9. In addition, he has allowed 2.63 homeruns per nine innings.

The Orioles bullpen behind him has a 3.5 ERA/3.48 FIP for the season while striking out 9.84 per nine, walking 3.33 per nine, and allowing 0.8 homeruns/9 with a BABIP of 0.307.

Those numbers for the last two weeks are slightly different with a 2.91 ERA/3.49 FIP. The strikeouts change to 8.16 per nine, walks to 1.75 BB/9, and homeruns go to 0.97 per nine innings with a overall BABIP of 0.27.

For the last month they have allowed 0.92 homers per nine, 1.94 walks, and struck out 8.66 batters per nine innings with a BABIP of 0.26. They have a 2.85 ERA/3.37 FIP over the past month.

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Tampa Bay Rays Offense:

Jack Flaherty and the bullpen balance against the Rays offense which presently has an OPS of 0.775 with an isolated slugging of 0.186, a team wRC+ of 117. They have a team walk percentage of 0.084 and they strikeout 0.232 percent of the time.

Over the past two weeks, the Tampa Bay Rays offense has struck out in 0.24 percent of at-bats, walked in 0.092 of ABs, slugged for a 0.177 isolated slugging, and hit for a team 0.736 OPS with a wRC+ of 106.

The numbers vary slightly for the past month with a OPS of 0.798, team isolated slugging of 0.183, and wRC+ of 124. During this time the Rays have struck out 0.24 and walked in 0.092 percent of at-bats.

The Tampa Bay Rays against lefties have a 113 wRC+ in view of a 0.762 OPS with a 0.083 walk rate and a 0.232 strikeout rate.

Comparatively, against righties they have a 118 wRC+ in view of a 0.778 OPS with a 0.084 walk rate and a 0.778 strikeout rate.

The Rays have an over/under record of 79-65-4, going over in 0.547 percent and under 0.453 percent. Lastly, they have a straight-up record (straight-up division record) of 91-57 (25-16) and a Run Line record of 79-69.

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MLB Statcast Match-up:
Statcast Leaderboard
Hard Hit % Barrels %
Zach Eflin 0.35 0.089
BAL Offense 0.408 0.08
Jack Flaherty 0.377 0.072
TBR Offense 0.405 0.084

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Tampa Bay Rays Pitching:

The Rays will send Zach Eflin out first to face Orioles. He has struck out 9.19 batters per nine thus far this season while walking 1.29 per nine. He has pitched 160.2 innings and made 28 starts, an average start of 5.72142857142857 innings. Zach Eflin has allowed 0.95 homeruns per nine innings in those starts with a 3.53 ERA/3.08 FIP all in all.

Zach Eflin has a 2.86 ERA/3.01 FIP over his past 5 starts and 28.1 innings. During this stretch he has struck out 10.16 batters per nine, walked 1.59 per nine, and allowed 0.95 homers per nine innings.

He will be backed up by his bullpen which has a 3.71 ERA/4 FIP to date. They have walked 3.24 per nine, struck out 8.75 per nine, and allowed 0.98 homers/nine. Their BABIP currently sits at 0.265.

Over the last two weeks, the Tampa Bay Rays bullpen has a K/9 of 11.9, a BB/9 of 1.89, and a HR/9 of 0.38 with a 0.236 BABIP. To sum up, they have a 1.13 ERA/1.85 FIP in this case.

If we zoom out over the past month, we see a Tampa Bay Rays bullpen that has struck out 10.93 batters per nine, walked 2.38 per nine, and allowed 0.48 homeruns per nine innings. They have a BABIP of 0.244 over this time period with a 1.9 ERA/2.37 FIP.

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Baltimore Orioles Offense:

For the season, they have a 0.752 OPS and a 0.171 isolated slugging. That’s good for a 107 wRC+. At the plate, they have struck out 0.218 and walked 0.084 percent of the time.

Over the past two weeks, the offense has hit for a 126 wRC+ on a 0.821 OPS and 0.182 isolated slugging. During this run, the Baltimore Orioles offense has struck out in 0.205 percent of at-bats and walked in 0.096 of them.

The numbers vary over the past month as the Orioles have walked in 0.081 and struck out in 0.204 of at-bats. This past month they have a 125 wRC+, a 0.817 OPS, and a 0.182 isolated slugging.

Against righties they have a 104 wRC+ in view of a 0.744 OPS with a 0.077 walk rate and a 0.744 strikeout rate.

The Orioles against lefties have a 113 wRC+ in view of a 0.77 OPS with a 0.099 walk rate and a 0.77 strikeout rate.

The Baltimore Orioles are 91-55 (28-17) straight up / straight up in the division this season for a 0.62 win percentage. For the season, they are 88-58 against the run line, winning 0.603 percent of games. Lastly, they have a 77-60-9 over/under/push record this season. Therefore they have went over 0.558 percent of the time and under at 0.442.

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Baseball Bot Prediction:

Rays: 5
Orioles: 4

Total: 9

Best Bets:

Rays -140
Over 8.5

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