July 12, 2024

September 15, 2023 Rangers at Guardians Predictions & Betting Tips

A complete betting guide and predictions for the September 15, 2023 match-up between the Texas Rangers and the Cleveland Guardians.

The Cleveland Guardians have money line betting odds of +105 at home against the Texas Rangers. You can bet the money line on the Texas Rangers at -125. The total for this game is set at over/under 8.

Baseball Bot’s system is based on the starting pitchers listed on this page. If one or both of those pitchers do not end up pitching, consider this analysis void.

Need help understanding the statistics used below? Check out our Baseball Stats Guide.

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Texas Rangers -125

TEX Starter: Jon Gray 3.96 ERA/4.26 FIP
TEX Bullpen: 4.82 ERA/4.59 FIP
TEX OPS: 0.797

Cleveland Guardians +105

CLE Starter: Lucas Giolito 4.89 ERA/5.22 FIP
CLE Bullpen: 3.74 ERA/4.12 FIP
CLE OPS: 0.688

Cleveland Guardians Pitching:

The Guardians will send Lucas Giolito to the mound at home against the Texas Rangers. Lucas Giolito has a 4.89 ERA and a 5.22 FIP in 29 starts and 163.2 innings thus far this season. To clarify, his average start lasts 5.62758620689655 innings. All things considered, he has struck out 9.73 batters per nine innings on the positive side. On the negative side, he’s walking 3.3 per nine and allowing 1.98 HR/9. Additionally, over his last 4 starts and 21.2 innings, Lucas Giolito has a 7.89 ERA and a 8.15 FIP with 11.22 K/9, 3.74 BB/9. In addition, he has allowed 4.15 homeruns per nine innings.

The Guardians bullpen behind him has a 3.74 ERA/4.12 FIP for the season while striking out 8.89 per nine, walking 3.54 per nine, and allowing 1.08 homeruns/9 with a BABIP of 0.288.

Those numbers for the last two weeks are slightly different with a 6.5 ERA/5.29 FIP. The strikeouts change to 7.29 per nine, walks to 3.74 BB/9, and homeruns go to 1.58 per nine innings with a overall BABIP of 0.361.

For the last month they have allowed 1.32 homers per nine, 3.88 walks, and struck out 8.34 batters per nine innings with a BABIP of 0.316. They have a 4.29 ERA/4.74 FIP over the past month.

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Texas Rangers Offense:

Lucas Giolito and the bullpen balance against the Rangers offense which presently has an OPS of 0.797 with an isolated slugging of 0.19, a team wRC+ of 116. They have a team walk percentage of 0.094 and they strikeout 0.222 percent of the time.

Over the past two weeks, the Texas Rangers offense has struck out in 0.193 percent of at-bats, walked in 0.117 of ABs, slugged for a 0.219 isolated slugging, and hit for a team 0.84 OPS with a wRC+ of 127.

The numbers vary slightly for the past month with a OPS of 0.751, team isolated slugging of 0.18, and wRC+ of 104. During this time the Rangers have struck out 0.193 and walked in 0.117 percent of at-bats.

The Texas Rangers against lefties have a 119 wRC+ in view of a 0.806 OPS with a 0.101 walk rate and a 0.216 strikeout rate.

Comparatively, against righties they have a 115 wRC+ in view of a 0.793 OPS with a 0.091 walk rate and a 0.793 strikeout rate.

The Rangers have an over/under record of 77-63-6, going over in 0.548 percent and under 0.452 percent. Lastly, they have a straight-up record (straight-up division record) of 82-64 (23-19) and a Run Line record of 78-68.

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MLB Statcast Match-up:
Statcast Leaderboard
Hard Hit % Barrels %
Jon Gray 0.379 0.061
CLE Offense 0.326 0.05
Lucas Giolito 0.423 0.11
TEX Offense 0.417 0.092

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Texas Rangers Pitching:

The Rangers will send Jon Gray out first to face Guardians. He has struck out 8.11 batters per nine thus far this season while walking 3.16 per nine. He has pitched 145.1 innings and made 26 starts, an average start of 5.58076923076923 innings. Jon Gray has allowed 1.11 homeruns per nine innings in those starts with a 3.96 ERA/4.26 FIP all in all.

Jon Gray has a 5.47 ERA/5.12 FIP over his past 5 starts and 24.2 innings. During this stretch he has struck out 10.58 batters per nine, walked 4.38 per nine, and allowed 1.82 homers per nine innings.

He will be backed up by his bullpen which has a 4.82 ERA/4.59 FIP to date. They have walked 3.18 per nine, struck out 8.8 per nine, and allowed 1.45 homers/nine. Their BABIP currently sits at 0.282.

Over the last two weeks, the Texas Rangers bullpen has a K/9 of 9.44, a BB/9 of 3.48, and a HR/9 of 2.47 with a 0.313 BABIP. To sum up, they have a 5.81 ERA/6.08 FIP in this case.

If we zoom out over the past month, we see a Texas Rangers bullpen that has struck out 8.68 batters per nine, walked 4.03 per nine, and allowed 2.21 homeruns per nine innings. They have a BABIP of 0.294 over this time period with a 5.84 ERA/6.07 FIP.

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Cleveland Guardians Offense:

For the season, they have a 0.688 OPS and a 0.13 isolated slugging. That’s good for a 90 wRC+. At the plate, they have struck out 0.188 and walked 0.076 percent of the time.

Over the past two weeks, the offense has hit for a 83 wRC+ on a 0.66 OPS and 0.102 isolated slugging. During this run, the Cleveland Guardians offense has struck out in 0.173 percent of at-bats and walked in 0.082 of them.

The numbers vary over the past month as the Guardians have walked in 0.074 and struck out in 0.199 of at-bats. This past month they have a 83 wRC+, a 0.666 OPS, and a 0.129 isolated slugging.

Against righties they have a 94 wRC+ in view of a 0.704 OPS with a 0.078 walk rate and a 0.704 strikeout rate.

The Guardians against lefties have a 80 wRC+ in view of a 0.653 OPS with a 0.072 walk rate and a 0.653 strikeout rate.

The Cleveland Guardians are 69-78 (22-24) straight up / straight up in the division this season for a 0.47 win percentage. For the season, they are 75-72 against the run line, winning 0.51 percent of games. Lastly, they have a 62-82-3 over/under/push record this season. Therefore they have went over 0.432 percent of the time and under at 0.568.

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Baseball Bot Prediction:

Rangers: 4.5
Guardians: 4

Total: 8.5

Best Bets:

Rangers -125
Over 8

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