November 24, 2023

September 12, 2023 Yankees at Red Sox Predictions & Betting Tips

A complete betting guide and predictions for the September 12, 2023 match-up between the New York Yankees and the Boston Red Sox.

The Boston Red Sox have money line betting odds of -135 at home against the New York Yankees. You can bet the money line on the New York Yankees at +115. The total for this game is set at over/under 9.5.

Baseball Bot’s system is based on the starting pitchers listed on this page. If one or both of those pitchers do not end up pitching, consider this analysis void.

Need help understanding the statistics used below? Check out our Baseball Stats Guide.

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New York Yankees +115

NYY Starter: Clarke Schmidt 4.54 ERA/4.13 FIP
NYY Bullpen: 3.25 ERA/3.93 FIP
NYY OPS: 0.7

Boston Red Sox -135

BOS Starter: Tanner Houck 5.28 ERA/4.46 FIP
BOS Bullpen: 4.3 ERA/4.25 FIP
BOS OPS: 0.765

Boston Red Sox Pitching:

The Red Sox will send Tanner Houck to the mound at home against the New York Yankees. Tanner Houck has a 5.28 ERA and a 4.46 FIP in 17 starts and 87 innings thus far this season. To clarify, his average start lasts 5.11764705882353 innings. All things considered, he has struck out 8.28 batters per nine innings on the positive side. On the negative side, he’s walking 3.21 per nine and allowing 1.24 HR/9. Additionally, over his last 4 starts and 19.1 innings, Tanner Houck has a 6.05 ERA and a 5.33 FIP with 7.45 K/9, 3.72 BB/9. In addition, he has allowed 1.4 homeruns per nine innings.

The Red Sox bullpen behind him has a 4.3 ERA/4.25 FIP for the season while striking out 8.77 per nine, walking 3.49 per nine, and allowing 1.1 homeruns/9 with a BABIP of 0.314.

Those numbers for the last two weeks are slightly different with a 4.64 ERA/4.88 FIP. The strikeouts change to 9.77 per nine, walks to 4.8 BB/9, and homeruns go to 1.33 per nine innings with a overall BABIP of 0.306.

For the last month they have allowed 1.49 homers per nine, 4.23 walks, and struck out 9.78 batters per nine innings with a BABIP of 0.347. They have a 5.71 ERA/4.96 FIP over the past month.

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New York Yankees Offense:

Tanner Houck and the bullpen balance against the Yankees offense which presently has an OPS of 0.7 with an isolated slugging of 0.173, a team wRC+ of 93. They have a team walk percentage of 0.093 and they strikeout 0.236 percent of the time.

Over the past two weeks, the New York Yankees offense has struck out in 0.272 percent of at-bats, walked in 0.11 of ABs, slugged for a 0.162 isolated slugging, and hit for a team 0.649 OPS with a wRC+ of 81.

The numbers vary slightly for the past month with a OPS of 0.652, team isolated slugging of 0.175, and wRC+ of 81. During this time the Yankees have struck out 0.272 and walked in 0.11 percent of at-bats.

The New York Yankees against lefties have a 115 wRC+ in view of a 0.782 OPS with a 0.097 walk rate and a 0.226 strikeout rate.

Comparatively, against righties they have a 88 wRC+ in view of a 0.679 OPS with a 0.091 walk rate and a 0.679 strikeout rate.

The Yankees have an over/under record of 65-73-7, going over in 0.472 percent and under 0.528 percent. Lastly, they have a straight-up record (straight-up division record) of 73-72 (18-26) and a Run Line record of 70-75.

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MLB Statcast Match-up:
Statcast Leaderboard
Hard Hit % Barrels %
Clarke Schmidt 0.42 0.08
BOS Offense 0.402 0.075
Tanner Houck 0.441 0.069
NYY Offense 0.415 0.094

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New York Yankees Pitching:

The Yankees will send Clarke Schmidt out first to face Red Sox. He has struck out 8.89 batters per nine thus far this season while walking 2.43 per nine. He has pitched 140.2 innings and made 28 starts, an average start of 5.00714285714286 innings. Clarke Schmidt has allowed 1.28 homeruns per nine innings in those starts with a 4.54 ERA/4.13 FIP all in all.

Clarke Schmidt has a 5.96 ERA/3.34 FIP over his past 5 starts and 25.2 innings. During this stretch he has struck out 10.17 batters per nine, walked 2.45 per nine, and allowed 1.05 homers per nine innings.

He will be backed up by his bullpen which has a 3.25 ERA/3.93 FIP to date. They have walked 3.77 per nine, struck out 9.12 per nine, and allowed 0.85 homers/nine. Their BABIP currently sits at 0.271.

Over the last two weeks, the New York Yankees bullpen has a K/9 of 8.79, a BB/9 of 4.15, and a HR/9 of 0.48 with a 0.277 BABIP. To sum up, they have a 2.72 ERA/3.54 FIP in this case.

If we zoom out over the past month, we see a New York Yankees bullpen that has struck out 8.97 batters per nine, walked 4.16 per nine, and allowed 0.9 homeruns per nine innings. They have a BABIP of 0.28 over this time period with a 3.34 ERA/4.22 FIP.

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Boston Red Sox Offense:

For the season, they have a 0.765 OPS and a 0.173 isolated slugging. That’s good for a 103 wRC+. At the plate, they have struck out 0.216 and walked 0.08 percent of the time.

Over the past two weeks, the offense has hit for a 87 wRC+ on a 0.707 OPS and 0.16 isolated slugging. During this run, the Boston Red Sox offense has struck out in 0.267 percent of at-bats and walked in 0.074 of them.

The numbers vary over the past month as the Red Sox have walked in 0.08 and struck out in 0.226 of at-bats. This past month they have a 109 wRC+, a 0.786 OPS, and a 0.184 isolated slugging.

Against righties they have a 104 wRC+ in view of a 0.77 OPS with a 0.076 walk rate and a 0.77 strikeout rate.

The Red Sox against lefties have a 100 wRC+ in view of a 0.748 OPS with a 0.09 walk rate and a 0.748 strikeout rate.

The Boston Red Sox are 73-72 (21-20) straight up / straight up in the division this season for a 0.5 win percentage. For the season, they are 72-73 against the run line, winning 0.497 percent of games. Lastly, they have a 78-64-3 over/under/push record this season. Therefore they have went over 0.548 percent of the time and under at 0.452.

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Baseball Bot Prediction:

Yankees: 4.5
Red Sox: 5

Total: 9.5

Best Bets:

Red Sox -135
Over 9.5

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