November 28, 2023

September 12, 2023 Rays at Twins Predictions & Betting Tips

A complete betting guide and predictions for the September 12, 2023 match-up between the Tampa Bay Rays and the Minnesota Twins.

The Minnesota Twins have money line betting odds of +105 at home against the Tampa Bay Rays. You can bet the money line on the Tampa Bay Rays at -125. The total for this game is set at over/under 8.5.

Baseball Bot’s system is based on the starting pitchers listed on this page. If one or both of those pitchers do not end up pitching, consider this analysis void.

Need help understanding the statistics used below? Check out our Baseball Stats Guide.

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Tampa Bay Rays -125

TBR Starter: Taj Bradley 5.44 ERA/4.43 FIP
TBR Bullpen: 3.77 ERA/4.05 FIP
TBR OPS: 0.776

Minnesota Twins +105

MIN Starter: Dallas Keuchel 4.78 ERA/4.32 FIP
MIN Bullpen: 4.07 ERA/4.28 FIP
MIN OPS: 0.747

Minnesota Twins Pitching:

The Twins will send Dallas Keuchel to the mound at home against the Tampa Bay Rays. Dallas Keuchel has a 4.78 ERA and a 4.32 FIP in 5 starts and 26.1 innings thus far this season. To clarify, his average start lasts 5.22 innings. All things considered, he has struck out 4.78 batters per nine innings on the positive side. On the negative side, he’s walking 3.08 per nine and allowing 0.68 HR/9. Additionally, over his last 3 starts and 19.2 innings, Dallas Keuchel has a 3.2 ERA and a 3.92 FIP with 6.41 K/9 and a2.29 BB/9. In addition, he has allowed 0.92 homeruns per nine innings.

The Twins bullpen behind him has a 4.07 ERA/4.28 FIP for the season while striking out 9.11 per nine, walking 3.61 per nine, and allowing 1.15 homeruns/9 with a BABIP of 0.275.

Those numbers for the last two weeks are slightly different with a 4.53 ERA/5.14 FIP. The strikeouts change to 9.07 per nine, walks to 3.71 BB/9, and homeruns go to 1.65 per nine innings with a overall BABIP of 0.22.

For the last month they have allowed 1.42 homers per nine, 4.06 walks, and struck out 8.5 batters per nine innings with a BABIP of 0.242. They have a 4.34 ERA/4.96 FIP over the past month.

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Tampa Bay Rays Offense:

Dallas Keuchel and the bullpen balance against the Rays offense which presently has an OPS of 0.776 with an isolated slugging of 0.186, a team wRC+ of 117. They have a team walk percentage of 0.085 and they strikeout 0.232 percent of the time.

Over the past two weeks, the Tampa Bay Rays offense has struck out in 0.253 percent of at-bats, walked in 0.102 of ABs, slugged for a 0.163 isolated slugging, and hit for a team 0.721 OPS with a wRC+ of 104.

The numbers vary slightly for the past month with a OPS of 0.8, team isolated slugging of 0.175, and wRC+ of 125. During this time the Rays have struck out 0.253 and walked in 0.102 percent of at-bats.

The Tampa Bay Rays against lefties have a 113 wRC+ in view of a 0.76 OPS with a 0.082 walk rate and a 0.232 strikeout rate.

Comparatively, against righties they have a 118 wRC+ in view of a 0.78 OPS with a 0.085 walk rate and a 0.78 strikeout rate.

The Rays have an over/under record of 78-64-4, going over in 0.548 percent and under 0.452 percent. Lastly, they have a straight-up record (straight-up division record) of 89-57 (24-16) and a Run Line record of 78-68.

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MLB Statcast Match-up:
Statcast Leaderboard
Hard Hit % Barrels %
Taj Bradley 0.472 0.102
MIN Offense 0.416 0.103
Dallas Keuchel 0.307 0.068
TBR Offense 0.404 0.084

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Tampa Bay Rays Pitching:

The Rays will send Taj Bradley out first to face Twins. He has struck out 11.62 batters per nine thus far this season while walking 3.45 per nine. He has pitched 86 innings and made 18 starts, an average start of 4.77777777777778 innings. Taj Bradley has allowed 1.78 homeruns per nine innings in those starts with a 5.44 ERA/4.43 FIP all in all.

Taj Bradley has a 3.97 ERA/6.44 FIP over his past 2 starts and 11.1 innings. During this stretch he has struck out 9.53 batters per nine, walked 5.56 per nine, and allowed 2.38 homers per nine innings.

He will be backed up by his bullpen which has a 3.77 ERA/4.05 FIP to date. They have walked 3.28 per nine, struck out 8.71 per nine, and allowed 0.99 homers/nine. Their BABIP currently sits at 0.267.

Over the last two weeks, the Tampa Bay Rays bullpen has a K/9 of 11.72, a BB/9 of 2.09, and a HR/9 of 0.42 with a 0.247 BABIP. To sum up, they have a 1.26 ERA/2.03 FIP in this case.

If we zoom out over the past month, we see a Tampa Bay Rays bullpen that has struck out 10.51 batters per nine, walked 2.45 per nine, and allowed 0.59 homeruns per nine innings. They have a BABIP of 0.268 over this time period with a 2.36 ERA/2.69 FIP.

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Minnesota Twins Offense:

For the season, they have a 0.747 OPS and a 0.183 isolated slugging. That’s good for a 106 wRC+. At the plate, they have struck out 0.269 and walked 0.093 percent of the time.

Over the past two weeks, the offense has hit for a 120 wRC+ on a 0.794 OPS and 0.191 isolated slugging. During this run, the Minnesota Twins offense has struck out in 0.255 percent of at-bats and walked in 0.117 of them.

The numbers vary over the past month as the Twins have walked in 0.109 and struck out in 0.266 of at-bats. This past month they have a 125 wRC+, a 0.815 OPS, and a 0.203 isolated slugging.

Against righties they have a 109 wRC+ in view of a 0.758 OPS with a 0.098 walk rate and a 0.758 strikeout rate.

The Twins against lefties have a 95 wRC+ in view of a 0.713 OPS with a 0.078 walk rate and a 0.713 strikeout rate.

The Minnesota Twins are 76-69 (26-22) straight up / straight up in the division this season for a 0.52 win percentage. For the season, they are 72-73 against the run line, winning 0.497 percent of games. Lastly, they have a 70-68-7 over/under/push record this season. Therefore they have went over 0.507 percent of the time and under at 0.493.

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Baseball Bot Prediction:

Rays: 4.5
Twins: 4.5

Total: 9

Best Bets:

Rays -125
Over 8.5

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