July 11, 2024

September 12, 2023 Rangers at Blue Jays Predictions & Betting Tips

A complete betting guide and predictions for the September 12, 2023 match-up between the Texas Rangers and the Toronto Blue Jays.

The Toronto Blue Jays have money line betting odds of -125 at home against the Texas Rangers. You can bet the money line on the Texas Rangers at +105. The total for this game is set at over/under 8.

Baseball Bot’s system is based on the starting pitchers listed on this page. If one or both of those pitchers do not end up pitching, consider this analysis void.

Need help understanding the statistics used below? Check out our Baseball Stats Guide.

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Texas Rangers +105

TEX Starter: Jordan Montgomery 3.62 ERA/3.72 FIP
TEX Bullpen: 4.9 ERA/4.63 FIP
TEX OPS: 0.794

Toronto Blue Jays -125

TOR Starter: Yusei Kikuchi 3.57 ERA/4.16 FIP
TOR Bullpen: 3.63 ERA/3.93 FIP
TOR OPS: 0.752

Toronto Blue Jays Pitching:

The Blue Jays will send Yusei Kikuchi to the mound at home against the Texas Rangers. Yusei Kikuchi has a 3.57 ERA and a 4.16 FIP in 28 starts and 148.2 innings thus far this season. To clarify, his average start lasts 5.29285714285714 innings. All things considered, he has struck out 9.69 batters per nine innings on the positive side. On the negative side, he’s walking 2.6 per nine and allowing 1.45 HR/9. Additionally, over his last 5 starts and 26.1 innings, Yusei Kikuchi has a 3.76 ERA and a 2.5 FIP with 11.96 K/9, 2.73 BB/9. In addition, he has allowed 0.68 homeruns per nine innings.

The Blue Jays bullpen behind him has a 3.63 ERA/3.93 FIP for the season while striking out 9.71 per nine, walking 3.12 per nine, and allowing 1.15 homeruns/9 with a BABIP of 0.289.

Those numbers for the last two weeks are slightly different with a 5.66 ERA/4.66 FIP. The strikeouts change to 9.77 per nine, walks to 5.14 BB/9, and homeruns go to 1.29 per nine innings with a overall BABIP of 0.34.

For the last month they have allowed 1.35 homers per nine, 3.49 walks, and struck out 10.01 batters per nine innings with a BABIP of 0.285. They have a 4.16 ERA/4.26 FIP over the past month.

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Texas Rangers Offense:

Yusei Kikuchi and the bullpen balance against the Rangers offense which presently has an OPS of 0.794 with an isolated slugging of 0.189, a team wRC+ of 115. They have a team walk percentage of 0.093 and they strikeout 0.222 percent of the time.

Over the past two weeks, the Texas Rangers offense has struck out in 0.193 percent of at-bats, walked in 0.114 of ABs, slugged for a 0.203 isolated slugging, and hit for a team 0.79 OPS with a wRC+ of 114.

The numbers vary slightly for the past month with a OPS of 0.755, team isolated slugging of 0.184, and wRC+ of 104. During this time the Rangers have struck out 0.193 and walked in 0.114 percent of at-bats.

The Texas Rangers against lefties have a 120 wRC+ in view of a 0.809 OPS with a 0.101 walk rate and a 0.216 strikeout rate.

Comparatively, against righties they have a 113 wRC+ in view of a 0.788 OPS with a 0.089 walk rate and a 0.788 strikeout rate.

The Rangers have an over/under record of 75-63-6, going over in 0.542 percent and under 0.458 percent. Lastly, they have a straight-up record (straight-up division record) of 80-64 (23-19) and a Run Line record of 76-68.

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MLB Statcast Match-up:
Statcast Leaderboard
Hard Hit % Barrels %
Jordan Montgomery 0.386 0.079
TOR Offense 0.388 0.083
Yusei Kikuchi 0.414 0.085
TEX Offense 0.417 0.092

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Texas Rangers Pitching:

The Rangers will send Jordan Montgomery out first to face Blue Jays. He has struck out 8.02 batters per nine thus far this season while walking 2.39 per nine. He has pitched 161.2 innings and made 28 starts, an average start of 5.75714285714286 innings. Jordan Montgomery has allowed 0.95 homeruns per nine innings in those starts with a 3.62 ERA/3.72 FIP all in all.

Jordan Montgomery has a 4.71 ERA/3.5 FIP over his past 5 starts and 28.2 innings. During this stretch he has struck out 7.85 batters per nine, walked 1.88 per nine, and allowed 0.94 homers per nine innings.

He will be backed up by his bullpen which has a 4.9 ERA/4.63 FIP to date. They have walked 3.19 per nine, struck out 8.78 per nine, and allowed 1.47 homers/nine. Their BABIP currently sits at 0.283.

Over the last two weeks, the Texas Rangers bullpen has a K/9 of 9.1, a BB/9 of 3.94, and a HR/9 of 2.73 with a 0.333 BABIP. To sum up, they have a 6.37 ERA/6.75 FIP in this case.

If we zoom out over the past month, we see a Texas Rangers bullpen that has struck out 8.49 batters per nine, walked 3.96 per nine, and allowed 2.34 homeruns per nine innings. They have a BABIP of 0.294 over this time period with a 6.14 ERA/6.3 FIP.

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Toronto Blue Jays Offense:

For the season, they have a 0.752 OPS and a 0.16 isolated slugging. That’s good for a 108 wRC+. At the plate, they have struck out 0.208 and walked 0.089 percent of the time.

Over the past two weeks, the offense has hit for a 132 wRC+ on a 0.838 OPS and 0.182 isolated slugging. During this run, the Toronto Blue Jays offense has struck out in 0.174 percent of at-bats and walked in 0.126 of them.

The numbers vary over the past month as the Blue Jays have walked in 0.107 and struck out in 0.19 of at-bats. This past month they have a 113 wRC+, a 0.772 OPS, and a 0.179 isolated slugging.

Against righties they have a 105 wRC+ in view of a 0.743 OPS with a 0.086 walk rate and a 0.743 strikeout rate.

The Blue Jays against lefties have a 117 wRC+ in view of a 0.782 OPS with a 0.098 walk rate and a 0.782 strikeout rate.

The Toronto Blue Jays are 80-65 (12-25) straight up / straight up in the division this season for a 0.55 win percentage. For the season, they are 66-79 against the run line, winning 0.455 percent of games. Lastly, they have a 62-78-5 over/under/push record this season. Therefore they have went over 0.445 percent of the time and under at 0.555.

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Baseball Bot Prediction:

Rangers: 4
Blue Jays: 4.5

Total: 8.5

Best Bets:

Blue Jays -125
Over 8

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