September 12, 2023 Guardians at Giants Predictions & Betting Tips
A complete betting guide and predictions for the September 12, 2023 match-up between the Cleveland Guardians and the San Francisco Giants.
The San Francisco Giants have money line betting odds of -140 at home against the Cleveland Guardians. You can bet the money line on the Cleveland Guardians at +118. The total for this game is set at over/under 8.
Baseball Bot’s system is based on the starting pitchers listed on this page. If one or both of those pitchers do not end up pitching, consider this analysis void.
Need help understanding the statistics used below? Check out our Baseball Stats Guide.
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Cleveland Guardians +118CLE Starter: Logan Allen 3.68 ERA/4.12 FIP |
San Francisco Giants -140SFG Starter: Kyle Harrison 4.87 ERA/5.72 FIP |
San Francisco Giants Pitching:
The Giants will send Kyle Harrison to the mound at home against the Cleveland Guardians. Kyle Harrison has a 4.87 ERA and a 5.72 FIP in 4 starts and 20.1 innings thus far this season. To clarify, his average start lasts 5.025 innings. All things considered, he has struck out 11.51 batters per nine innings on the positive side. On the negative side, he’s walking 3.1 per nine and allowing 2.66 HR/9. Additionally, over his last 4 starts and 20.1 innings, Kyle Harrison has a 4.87 ERA and a 5.72 FIP with 11.51 K/9, 3.1 BB/9. In addition, he has allowed 2.66 homeruns per nine innings.
The Giants bullpen behind him has a 3.82 ERA/3.81 FIP for the season while striking out 9.01 per nine, walking 2.94 per nine, and allowing 0.98 homeruns/9 with a BABIP of 0.299.
Those numbers for the last two weeks are slightly different with a 3.96 ERA/4.02 FIP. The strikeouts change to 7.91 per nine, walks to 3.1 BB/9, and homeruns go to 1.03 per nine innings with a overall BABIP of 0.325.
For the last month they have allowed 1.43 homers per nine, 3.23 walks, and struck out 8.72 batters per nine innings with a BABIP of 0.334. They have a 4.74 ERA/4.61 FIP over the past month.
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Cleveland Guardians Offense:
Kyle Harrison and the bullpen balance against the Guardians offense which presently has an OPS of 0.688 with an isolated slugging of 0.13, a team wRC+ of 90. They have a team walk percentage of 0.077 and they strikeout 0.188 percent of the time.
Over the past two weeks, the Cleveland Guardians offense has struck out in 0.178 percent of at-bats, walked in 0.088 of ABs, slugged for a 0.102 isolated slugging, and hit for a team 0.649 OPS with a wRC+ of 79.
The numbers vary slightly for the past month with a OPS of 0.658, team isolated slugging of 0.125, and wRC+ of 81. During this time the Guardians have struck out 0.178 and walked in 0.088 percent of at-bats.
The Cleveland Guardians against lefties have a 80 wRC+ in view of a 0.651 OPS with a 0.073 walk rate and a 0.189 strikeout rate.
Comparatively, against righties they have a 94 wRC+ in view of a 0.704 OPS with a 0.079 walk rate and a 0.704 strikeout rate.
The Guardians have an over/under record of 61-82-3, going over in 0.428 percent and under 0.572 percent. Lastly, they have a straight-up record (straight-up division record) of 69-77 (22-24) and a Run Line record of 74-72.
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| MLB Statcast Match-up: | ||
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| Statcast Leaderboard | ||
| Hard Hit % | Barrels % | |
| Logan Allen | 0.39 | 0.079 |
| SFG Offense | 0.392 | 0.086 |
| Kyle Harrison | 0.5 | 0.135 |
| CLE Offense | 0.327 | 0.05 |
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Cleveland Guardians Pitching:
The Guardians will send Logan Allen out first to face Giants. He has struck out 8.67 batters per nine thus far this season while walking 3.3 per nine. He has pitched 117.1 innings and made 22 starts, an average start of 5.32272727272727 innings. Logan Allen has allowed 1.15 homeruns per nine innings in those starts with a 3.68 ERA/4.12 FIP all in all.
Logan Allen has a 4.15 ERA/4.26 FIP over his past 5 starts and 26 innings. During this stretch he has struck out 8.65 batters per nine, walked 2.77 per nine, and allowed 1.38 homers per nine innings.
He will be backed up by his bullpen which has a 3.71 ERA/4.1 FIP to date. They have walked 3.53 per nine, struck out 8.9 per nine, and allowed 1.07 homers/nine. Their BABIP currently sits at 0.287.
Over the last two weeks, the Cleveland Guardians bullpen has a K/9 of 7.58, a BB/9 of 3.69, and a HR/9 of 1.36 with a 0.333 BABIP. To sum up, they have a 5.63 ERA/4.84 FIP in this case.
If we zoom out over the past month, we see a Cleveland Guardians bullpen that has struck out 8.44 batters per nine, walked 3.76 per nine, and allowed 1.25 homeruns per nine innings. They have a BABIP of 0.31 over this time period with a 4.01 ERA/4.56 FIP.
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San Francisco Giants Offense:
For the season, they have a 0.706 OPS and a 0.151 isolated slugging. That’s good for a 95 wRC+. At the plate, they have struck out 0.246 and walked 0.087 percent of the time.
Over the past two weeks, the offense has hit for a 106 wRC+ on a 0.75 OPS and 0.175 isolated slugging. During this run, the San Francisco Giants offense has struck out in 0.206 percent of at-bats and walked in 0.08 of them.
The numbers vary over the past month as the Giants have walked in 0.078 and struck out in 0.233 of at-bats. This past month they have a 97 wRC+, a 0.715 OPS, and a 0.149 isolated slugging.
Against righties they have a 97 wRC+ in view of a 0.714 OPS with a 0.094 walk rate and a 0.714 strikeout rate.
The Giants against lefties have a 90 wRC+ in view of a 0.688 OPS with a 0.068 walk rate and a 0.688 strikeout rate.
The San Francisco Giants are 74-71 (22-14) straight up / straight up in the division this season for a 0.51 win percentage. For the season, they are 68-77 against the run line, winning 0.469 percent of games. Lastly, they have a 63-79-3 over/under/push record this season. Therefore they have went over 0.445 percent of the time and under at 0.555.
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Baseball Bot Prediction:
Guardians: 4
Giants: 4
Total: 8
Best Bets:
Giants -140
Over 8
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