September 12, 2023 Cubs at Rockies Predictions & Betting Tips
A complete betting guide and predictions for the September 12, 2023 match-up between the Chicago Cubs and the Colorado Rockies.
The Colorado Rockies have money line betting odds of +150 at home against the Chicago Cubs. You can bet the money line on the Chicago Cubs at -178. The total for this game is set at over/under 11.5.
Baseball Bot’s system is based on the starting pitchers listed on this page. If one or both of those pitchers do not end up pitching, consider this analysis void.
Need help understanding the statistics used below? Check out our Baseball Stats Guide.
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Chicago Cubs -178CHC Starter: Jameson Taillon 5.27 ERA/4.65 FIP |
Colorado Rockies +150COL Starter: Ty Blach 4.58 ERA/5.28 FIP |
Colorado Rockies Pitching:
The Rockies will send Ty Blach to the mound at home against the Chicago Cubs. Ty Blach has a 4.58 ERA and a 5.28 FIP in 9 starts and 59 innings thus far this season. To clarify, his average start lasts 6.55555555555556 innings. All things considered, he has struck out 5.19 batters per nine innings on the positive side. On the negative side, he’s walking 2.44 per nine and allowing 1.53 HR/9. Additionally, over his last 5 starts and 27 innings, Ty Blach has a 5 ERA and a 5.82 FIP with 7 K/9, 3.33 BB/9. In addition, he has allowed 2 homeruns per nine innings.
The Rockies bullpen behind him has a 5.32 ERA/4.62 FIP for the season while striking out 8.14 per nine, walking 4.26 per nine, and allowing 1.06 homeruns/9 with a BABIP of 0.322.
Those numbers for the last two weeks are slightly different with a 6.96 ERA/4.69 FIP. The strikeouts change to 7.8 per nine, walks to 5.27 BB/9, and homeruns go to 0.63 per nine innings with a overall BABIP of 0.373.
For the last month they have allowed 1.2 homers per nine, 4.32 walks, and struck out 6.93 batters per nine innings with a BABIP of 0.366. They have a 7.53 ERA/5.3 FIP over the past month.
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Chicago Cubs Offense:
Ty Blach and the bullpen balance against the Cubs offense which presently has an OPS of 0.747 with an isolated slugging of 0.165, a team wRC+ of 104. They have a team walk percentage of 0.091 and they strikeout 0.226 percent of the time.
Over the past two weeks, the Chicago Cubs offense has struck out in 0.194 percent of at-bats, walked in 0.083 of ABs, slugged for a 0.176 isolated slugging, and hit for a team 0.759 OPS with a wRC+ of 105.
The numbers vary slightly for the past month with a OPS of 0.728, team isolated slugging of 0.168, and wRC+ of 97. During this time the Cubs have struck out 0.194 and walked in 0.083 percent of at-bats.
The Chicago Cubs against lefties have a 103 wRC+ in view of a 0.75 OPS with a 0.078 walk rate and a 0.233 strikeout rate.
Comparatively, against righties they have a 104 wRC+ in view of a 0.745 OPS with a 0.095 walk rate and a 0.745 strikeout rate.
The Cubs have an over/under record of 70-70-6, going over in 0.5 percent and under 0.5 percent. Lastly, they have a straight-up record (straight-up division record) of 78-68 (28-18) and a Run Line record of 76-70.
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| MLB Statcast Match-up: | ||
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| Hard Hit % | Barrels % | |
| Jameson Taillon | 0.387 | 0.111 |
| COL Offense | 0.366 | 0.075 |
| Ty Blach | 0.446 | 0.093 |
| CHC Offense | 0.383 | 0.076 |
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Chicago Cubs Pitching:
The Cubs will send Jameson Taillon out first to face Rockies. He has struck out 8.24 batters per nine thus far this season while walking 2.3 per nine. He has pitched 133.1 innings and made 26 starts, an average start of 5.11923076923077 innings. Jameson Taillon has allowed 1.62 homeruns per nine innings in those starts with a 5.27 ERA/4.65 FIP all in all.
Jameson Taillon has a 3.68 ERA/4.56 FIP over his past 5 starts and 29.1 innings. During this stretch he has struck out 9.51 batters per nine, walked 0.61 per nine, and allowed 2.15 homers per nine innings.
He will be backed up by his bullpen which has a 3.96 ERA/4.02 FIP to date. They have walked 4.1 per nine, struck out 9.66 per nine, and allowed 0.95 homers/nine. Their BABIP currently sits at 0.287.
Over the last two weeks, the Chicago Cubs bullpen has a K/9 of 10.41, a BB/9 of 4.63, and a HR/9 of 0.96 with a 0.304 BABIP. To sum up, they have a 4.24 ERA/4.33 FIP in this case.
If we zoom out over the past month, we see a Chicago Cubs bullpen that has struck out 10.68 batters per nine, walked 4.45 per nine, and allowed 0.59 homeruns per nine innings. They have a BABIP of 0.295 over this time period with a 3.86 ERA/3.56 FIP.
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Colorado Rockies Offense:
For the season, they have a 0.707 OPS and a 0.151 isolated slugging. That’s good for a 76 wRC+. At the plate, they have struck out 0.254 and walked 0.074 percent of the time.
Over the past two weeks, the offense has hit for a 70 wRC+ on a 0.678 OPS and 0.135 isolated slugging. During this run, the Colorado Rockies offense has struck out in 0.244 percent of at-bats and walked in 0.084 of them.
The numbers vary over the past month as the Rockies have walked in 0.08 and struck out in 0.252 of at-bats. This past month they have a 81 wRC+, a 0.725 OPS, and a 0.157 isolated slugging.
Against righties they have a 80 wRC+ in view of a 0.722 OPS with a 0.075 walk rate and a 0.722 strikeout rate.
The Rockies against lefties have a 65 wRC+ in view of a 0.669 OPS with a 0.069 walk rate and a 0.669 strikeout rate.
The Colorado Rockies are 52-92 (9-32) straight up / straight up in the division this season for a 0.36 win percentage. For the season, they are 69-75 against the run line, winning 0.479 percent of games. Lastly, they have a 66-77-1 over/under/push record this season. Therefore they have went over 0.462 percent of the time and under at 0.538.
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Baseball Bot Prediction:
Cubs: 6.5
Rockies: 5
Total: 11.5
Best Bets:
Cubs -178
Over 11.5
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