November 24, 2023

September 12, 2023 Cardinals at Orioles Predictions & Betting Tips

A complete betting guide and predictions for the September 12, 2023 match-up between the St. Louis Cardinals and the Baltimore Orioles.

The Baltimore Orioles have money line betting odds of -178 at home against the St. Louis Cardinals. You can bet the money line on the St. Louis Cardinals at +150. The total for this game is set at over/under 10.

Baseball Bot’s system is based on the starting pitchers listed on this page. If one or both of those pitchers do not end up pitching, consider this analysis void.

Need help understanding the statistics used below? Check out our Baseball Stats Guide.

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St. Louis Cardinals +150

STL Starter: Drew Rom 7.79 ERA/6.72 FIP
STL Bullpen: 4.57 ERA/4.13 FIP
STL OPS: 0.754

Baltimore Orioles -178

BAL Starter: Kyle Gibson 5.12 ERA/4.08 FIP
BAL Bullpen: 3.53 ERA/3.5 FIP
BAL OPS: 0.756

Baltimore Orioles Pitching:

The Orioles will send Kyle Gibson to the mound at home against the St. Louis Cardinals. Kyle Gibson has a 5.12 ERA and a 4.08 FIP in 29 starts and 168.2 innings thus far this season. To clarify, his average start lasts 5.8 innings. All things considered, he has struck out 7.47 batters per nine innings on the positive side. On the negative side, he’s walking 2.56 per nine and allowing 1.07 HR/9. Additionally, over his last 4 starts and 23.1 innings, Kyle Gibson has a 6.56 ERA and a 4.8 FIP with 7.33 K/9, 1.16 BB/9. In addition, he has allowed 1.93 homeruns per nine innings.

The Orioles bullpen behind him has a 3.53 ERA/3.5 FIP for the season while striking out 9.86 per nine, walking 3.34 per nine, and allowing 0.8 homeruns/9 with a BABIP of 0.309.

Those numbers for the last two weeks are slightly different with a 3.47 ERA/3.6 FIP. The strikeouts change to 8.49 per nine, walks to 2.31 BB/9, and homeruns go to 0.96 per nine innings with a overall BABIP of 0.298.

For the last month they have allowed 0.89 homers per nine, 2.08 walks, and struck out 8.41 batters per nine innings with a BABIP of 0.281. They have a 3.07 ERA/3.44 FIP over the past month.

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St. Louis Cardinals Offense:

Kyle Gibson and the bullpen balance against the Cardinals offense which presently has an OPS of 0.754 with an isolated slugging of 0.172, a team wRC+ of 107. They have a team walk percentage of 0.09 and they strikeout 0.216 percent of the time.

Over the past two weeks, the St. Louis Cardinals offense has struck out in 0.198 percent of at-bats, walked in 0.095 of ABs, slugged for a 0.179 isolated slugging, and hit for a team 0.758 OPS with a wRC+ of 107.

The numbers vary slightly for the past month with a OPS of 0.703, team isolated slugging of 0.157, and wRC+ of 94. During this time the Cardinals have struck out 0.198 and walked in 0.095 percent of at-bats.

The St. Louis Cardinals against lefties have a 102 wRC+ in view of a 0.736 OPS with a 0.091 walk rate and a 0.224 strikeout rate.

Comparatively, against righties they have a 108 wRC+ in view of a 0.759 OPS with a 0.089 walk rate and a 0.759 strikeout rate.

The Cardinals have an over/under record of 71-68-6, going over in 0.51 percent and under 0.49 percent. Lastly, they have a straight-up record (straight-up division record) of 64-81 (17-25) and a Run Line record of 69-76.

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MLB Statcast Match-up:
Statcast Leaderboard
Hard Hit % Barrels %
Drew Rom 0.431 0.123
BAL Offense 0.408 0.08
Kyle Gibson 0.446 0.077
STL Offense 0.419 0.086

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St. Louis Cardinals Pitching:

The Cardinals will send Drew Rom out first to face Orioles. He has struck out 5.71 batters per nine thus far this season while walking 5.19 per nine. He has pitched 17.1 innings and made 4 starts, an average start of 4.275 innings. Drew Rom has allowed 2.08 homeruns per nine innings in those starts with a 7.79 ERA/6.72 FIP all in all.

Drew Rom has a 7.79 ERA/6.72 FIP over his past 4 starts and 17.1 innings. During this stretch he has struck out 5.71 batters per nine, walked 5.19 per nine, and allowed 2.08 homers per nine innings.

He will be backed up by his bullpen which has a 4.57 ERA/4.13 FIP to date. They have walked 3.75 per nine, struck out 8.87 per nine, and allowed 1 homers/nine. Their BABIP currently sits at 0.316.

Over the last two weeks, the St. Louis Cardinals bullpen has a K/9 of 7.3, a BB/9 of 4.43, and a HR/9 of 1.77 with a 0.266 BABIP. To sum up, they have a 4.43 ERA/5.89 FIP in this case.

If we zoom out over the past month, we see a St. Louis Cardinals bullpen that has struck out 6.97 batters per nine, walked 3.29 per nine, and allowed 1.55 homeruns per nine innings. They have a BABIP of 0.307 over this time period with a 5.23 ERA/5.27 FIP.

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Baltimore Orioles Offense:

For the season, they have a 0.756 OPS and a 0.171 isolated slugging. That’s good for a 107 wRC+. At the plate, they have struck out 0.216 and walked 0.084 percent of the time.

Over the past two weeks, the offense has hit for a 139 wRC+ on a 0.867 OPS and 0.185 isolated slugging. During this run, the Baltimore Orioles offense has struck out in 0.183 percent of at-bats and walked in 0.096 of them.

The numbers vary over the past month as the Orioles have walked in 0.078 and struck out in 0.191 of at-bats. This past month they have a 129 wRC+, a 0.833 OPS, and a 0.181 isolated slugging.

Against righties they have a 104 wRC+ in view of a 0.746 OPS with a 0.077 walk rate and a 0.746 strikeout rate.

The Orioles against lefties have a 114 wRC+ in view of a 0.777 OPS with a 0.098 walk rate and a 0.777 strikeout rate.

The Baltimore Orioles are 91-53 (28-16) straight up / straight up in the division this season for a 0.63 win percentage. For the season, they are 88-56 against the run line, winning 0.611 percent of games. Lastly, they have a 77-58-9 over/under/push record this season. Therefore they have went over 0.566 percent of the time and under at 0.434.

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Baseball Bot Prediction:

Cardinals: 4.5
Orioles: 6

Total: 10.5

Best Bets:

Orioles -178
Over 10

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