November 27, 2023

September 12, 2023 Athletics at Astros Predictions & Betting Tips

A complete betting guide and predictions for the September 12, 2023 match-up between the Oakland Athletics and the Houston Astros.

The Houston Astros have money line betting odds of -278 at home against the Oakland Athletics. You can bet the money line on the Oakland Athletics at +222. The total for this game is set at over/under 9.

Baseball Bot’s system is based on the starting pitchers listed on this page. If one or both of those pitchers do not end up pitching, consider this analysis void.

Need help understanding the statistics used below? Check out our Baseball Stats Guide.

Bet Baseball at BetOnline

Oakland Athletics +222

OAK Starter: Paul Blackburn 3.88 ERA/3.56 FIP
OAK Bullpen: 5.26 ERA/4.82 FIP
OAK OPS: 0.676

Houston Astros -278

HOU Starter: Hunter Brown 4.78 ERA/4 FIP
HOU Bullpen: 3.7 ERA/4.2 FIP
HOU OPS: 0.765

Houston Astros Pitching:

The Astros will send Hunter Brown to the mound at home against the Oakland Athletics. Hunter Brown has a 4.78 ERA and a 4 FIP in 26 starts and 141.1 innings thus far this season. To clarify, his average start lasts 5.42692307692308 innings. All things considered, he has struck out 10.32 batters per nine innings on the positive side. On the negative side, he’s walking 3.12 per nine and allowing 1.27 HR/9. Additionally, over his last 4 starts and 18 innings, Hunter Brown has a 8.5 ERA and a 4.48 FIP with 12.5 K/9, 5.5 BB/9. In addition, he has allowed 1.5 homeruns per nine innings.

The Astros bullpen behind him has a 3.7 ERA/4.2 FIP for the season while striking out 10.09 per nine, walking 3.72 per nine, and allowing 1.2 homeruns/9 with a BABIP of 0.291.

Those numbers for the last two weeks are slightly different with a 3.26 ERA/4.68 FIP. The strikeouts change to 7.91 per nine, walks to 2.79 BB/9, and homeruns go to 1.4 per nine innings with a overall BABIP of 0.245.

For the last month they have allowed 1.38 homers per nine, 2.76 walks, and struck out 9.03 batters per nine innings with a BABIP of 0.293. They have a 3.87 ERA/4.36 FIP over the past month.

Bet Baseball at BetOnline

Oakland Athletics Offense:

Hunter Brown and the bullpen balance against the Athletics offense which presently has an OPS of 0.676 with an isolated slugging of 0.149, a team wRC+ of 90. They have a team walk percentage of 0.084 and they strikeout 0.247 percent of the time.

Over the past two weeks, the Oakland Athletics offense has struck out in 0.256 percent of at-bats, walked in 0.066 of ABs, slugged for a 0.221 isolated slugging, and hit for a team 0.787 OPS with a wRC+ of 117.

The numbers vary slightly for the past month with a OPS of 0.732, team isolated slugging of 0.186, and wRC+ of 104. During this time the Athletics have struck out 0.256 and walked in 0.066 percent of at-bats.

The Oakland Athletics against lefties have a 91 wRC+ in view of a 0.681 OPS with a 0.075 walk rate and a 0.239 strikeout rate.

Comparatively, against righties they have a 90 wRC+ in view of a 0.674 OPS with a 0.087 walk rate and a 0.674 strikeout rate.

The Athletics have an over/under record of 77-63-5, going over in 0.548 percent and under 0.452 percent. Lastly, they have a straight-up record (straight-up division record) of 46-99 (13-32) and a Run Line record of 73-72.

Bet Baseball at BetOnline

MLB Statcast Match-up:
Statcast Leaderboard
Hard Hit % Barrels %
Paul Blackburn 0.32 0.054
HOU Offense 0.383 0.081
Hunter Brown 0.435 0.099
OAK Offense 0.351 0.073

Bet Baseball at BetOnline

Oakland Athletics Pitching:

The Athletics will send Paul Blackburn out first to face Astros. He has struck out 9.23 batters per nine thus far this season while walking 3.4 per nine. He has pitched 92.2 innings and made 17 starts, an average start of 5.42352941176471 innings. Paul Blackburn has allowed 0.78 homeruns per nine innings in those starts with a 3.88 ERA/3.56 FIP all in all.

Paul Blackburn has a 2.33 ERA/3.19 FIP over his past 5 starts and 27 innings. During this stretch he has struck out 9.67 batters per nine, walked 3.33 per nine, and allowed 0.67 homers per nine innings.

He will be backed up by his bullpen which has a 5.26 ERA/4.82 FIP to date. They have walked 4.83 per nine, struck out 8.24 per nine, and allowed 1.09 homers/nine. Their BABIP currently sits at 0.299.

Over the last two weeks, the Oakland Athletics bullpen has a K/9 of 7.06, a BB/9 of 5.12, and a HR/9 of 0.88 with a 0.254 BABIP. To sum up, they have a 4.24 ERA/4.79 FIP in this case.

If we zoom out over the past month, we see a Oakland Athletics bullpen that has struck out 7.7 batters per nine, walked 4.44 per nine, and allowed 0.7 homeruns per nine innings. They have a BABIP of 0.291 over this time period with a 4.2 ERA/4.19 FIP.

Bet Baseball at BetOnline

Houston Astros Offense:

For the season, they have a 0.765 OPS and a 0.175 isolated slugging. That’s good for a 111 wRC+. At the plate, they have struck out 0.198 and walked 0.088 percent of the time.

Over the past two weeks, the offense has hit for a 132 wRC+ on a 0.848 OPS and 0.215 isolated slugging. During this run, the Houston Astros offense has struck out in 0.158 percent of at-bats and walked in 0.077 of them.

The numbers vary over the past month as the Astros have walked in 0.087 and struck out in 0.155 of at-bats. This past month they have a 138 wRC+, a 0.869 OPS, and a 0.211 isolated slugging.

Against righties they have a 105 wRC+ in view of a 0.745 OPS with a 0.089 walk rate and a 0.745 strikeout rate.

The Astros against lefties have a 123 wRC+ in view of a 0.814 OPS with a 0.086 walk rate and a 0.814 strikeout rate.

The Houston Astros are 82-64 (29-19) straight up / straight up in the division this season for a 0.56 win percentage. For the season, they are 74-72 against the run line, winning 0.507 percent of games. Lastly, they have a 77-65-4 over/under/push record this season. Therefore they have went over 0.541 percent of the time and under at 0.459.

Bet Baseball at BetOnline

Baseball Bot Prediction:

Athletics: 3.5
Astros: 5.5

Total: 9

Best Bets:

Astros -278
Over 9

Bet Baseball at BetOnline

About Author