September 12, 2023 Padres at Dodgers Predictions & Betting Tips
A complete betting guide and predictions for the September 12, 2023 match-up between the San Diego Padres and the Los Angeles Dodgers.
The Los Angeles Dodgers have money line betting odds of -160 at home against the San Diego Padres. You can bet the money line on the San Diego Padres at +135. The total for this game is set at over/under 9.
Baseball Bot’s system is based on the starting pitchers listed on this page. If one or both of those pitchers do not end up pitching, consider this analysis void.
Need help understanding the statistics used below? Check out our Baseball Stats Guide.
 |
|---|
| Advertisement |
 |
 |
|---|---|
San Diego Padres +135SDP Starter: Michael Wacha 2.99 ERA/3.94 FIP |
Los Angeles Dodgers -160LAD Starter: Lance Lynn 6.09 ERA/5.57 FIP |
Los Angeles Dodgers Pitching:
The Dodgers will send Lance Lynn to the mound at home against the San Diego Padres. Lance Lynn has a 6.09 ERA and a 5.57 FIP in 28 starts and 159.2 innings thus far this season. To clarify, his average start lasts 5.68571428571429 innings. All things considered, he has struck out 9.7 batters per nine innings on the positive side. On the negative side, he’s walking 3.16 per nine and allowing 2.25 HR/9. Additionally, over his last 4 starts and 22 innings, Lance Lynn has a 7.36 ERA and a 8.53 FIP with 2.45 K/9, 2.86 BB/9. In addition, he has allowed 3.27 homeruns per nine innings.
The Dodgers bullpen behind him has a 3.67 ERA/3.88 FIP for the season while striking out 9 per nine, walking 3.16 per nine, and allowing 0.97 homeruns/9 with a BABIP of 0.285.
Those numbers for the last two weeks are slightly different with a 2.16 ERA/3.5 FIP. The strikeouts change to 7.74 per nine, walks to 1.8 BB/9, and homeruns go to 0.9 per nine innings with a overall BABIP of 0.246.
For the last month they have allowed 0.91 homers per nine, 1.89 walks, and struck out 8.07 batters per nine innings with a BABIP of 0.238. They have a 2.22 ERA/3.57 FIP over the past month.
|
|---|
| Advertisement |
San Diego Padres Offense:
Lance Lynn and the bullpen balance against the Padres offense which presently has an OPS of 0.74 with an isolated slugging of 0.172, a team wRC+ of 107. They have a team walk percentage of 0.106 and they strikeout 0.213 percent of the time.
Over the past two weeks, the San Diego Padres offense has struck out in 0.174 percent of at-bats, walked in 0.096 of ABs, slugged for a 0.188 isolated slugging, and hit for a team 0.814 OPS with a wRC+ of 126.
The numbers vary slightly for the past month with a OPS of 0.75, team isolated slugging of 0.17, and wRC+ of 110. During this time the Padres have struck out 0.174 and walked in 0.096 percent of at-bats.
The San Diego Padres against lefties have a 118 wRC+ in view of a 0.788 OPS with a 0.097 walk rate and a 0.216 strikeout rate.
Comparatively, against righties they have a 102 wRC+ in view of a 0.721 OPS with a 0.108 walk rate and a 0.721 strikeout rate.
The Padres have an over/under record of 61-74-10, going over in 0.455 percent and under 0.545 percent. Lastly, they have a straight-up record (straight-up division record) of 68-77 (21-23) and a Run Line record of 69-76.
|
|---|
| Advertisement |
| MLB Statcast Match-up: | ||
|---|---|---|
| Statcast Leaderboard | ||
| Hard Hit % | Barrels % | |
| Michael Wacha | 0.352 | 0.079 |
| LAD Offense | 0.412 | 0.094 |
| Lance Lynn | 0.4 | 0.106 |
| SDP Offense | 0.398 | 0.086 |
|
|---|
| Advertisement |
San Diego Padres Pitching:
The Padres will send Michael Wacha out first to face Dodgers. He has struck out 8.25 batters per nine thus far this season while walking 3.07 per nine. He has pitched 111.1 innings and made 20 starts, an average start of 5.555 innings. Michael Wacha has allowed 0.97 homeruns per nine innings in those starts with a 2.99 ERA/3.94 FIP all in all.
Michael Wacha has a 3.51 ERA/4.66 FIP over his past 5 starts and 25.2 innings. During this stretch he has struck out 10.17 batters per nine, walked 4.56 per nine, and allowed 1.4 homers per nine innings.
He will be backed up by his bullpen which has a 3.86 ERA/4.25 FIP to date. They have walked 3.68 per nine, struck out 8.79 per nine, and allowed 1.03 homers/nine. Their BABIP currently sits at 0.281.
Over the last two weeks, the San Diego Padres bullpen has a K/9 of 8.5, a BB/9 of 2.67, and a HR/9 of 0.83 with a 0.281 BABIP. To sum up, they have a 3.17 ERA/3.85 FIP in this case.
If we zoom out over the past month, we see a San Diego Padres bullpen that has struck out 8.48 batters per nine, walked 3.32 per nine, and allowed 0.79 homeruns per nine innings. They have a BABIP of 0.284 over this time period with a 3.5 ERA/3.85 FIP.
|
|---|
| Advertisement |
Los Angeles Dodgers Offense:
For the season, they have a 0.801 OPS and a 0.201 isolated slugging. That’s good for a 118 wRC+. At the plate, they have struck out 0.215 and walked 0.106 percent of the time.
Over the past two weeks, the offense has hit for a 131 wRC+ on a 0.847 OPS and 0.189 isolated slugging. During this run, the Los Angeles Dodgers offense has struck out in 0.209 percent of at-bats and walked in 0.115 of them.
The numbers vary over the past month as the Dodgers have walked in 0.101 and struck out in 0.21 of at-bats. This past month they have a 125 wRC+, a 0.826 OPS, and a 0.187 isolated slugging.
Against righties they have a 118 wRC+ in view of a 0.801 OPS with a 0.104 walk rate and a 0.801 strikeout rate.
The Dodgers against lefties have a 118 wRC+ in view of a 0.801 OPS with a 0.108 walk rate and a 0.801 strikeout rate.
The Los Angeles Dodgers are 87-56 (26-13) straight up / straight up in the division this season for a 0.61 win percentage. For the season, they are 80-63 against the run line, winning 0.559 percent of games. Lastly, they have a 83-53-7 over/under/push record this season. Therefore they have went over 0.605 percent of the time and under at 0.395.
|
|---|
| Advertisement |
Baseball Bot Prediction:
Padres: 4
Dodgers: 5
Total: 9
Best Bets:
Dodgers -160
Over 9
|
|---|
| Advertisement |
About Author
