August 31, 2022 Pittsburgh Pirates at Milwaukee Brewers Betting Tips
The Milwaukee Brewers have money line betting odds of -267 at home against the Pittsburgh Pirates. You can bet the money line on the Pittsburgh Pirates at +215. The total for this game is set at over/under 8.5.
The Milwaukee Brewers will send Freddy Peralta to the mound at home against the Pittsburgh Pirates. Freddy Peralta has a 3.69 ERA and a 2.97 FIP in 13 starts and 63.1 innings thus far this season and his average start lasts 4.85384615384615 innings. He has struck out 9.95 batters per nine innings while walking 3.27 per nine and allowing 0.57 HR/9. Over his last 5 starts and 24.2 innings, Freddy Peralta has a 2.55 ERA and a 4.3 FIP with 7.3 K/9, 3.65 BB/9, and he has allowed 1.09 homeruns per nine innings.
For the season, he has pitched for a 4.64 ERA/2.88 FIP at home with 9.55 strikeouts per nine, 3 walks per nine, and 0.55 homeruns allowed per nine innings.
The Milwaukee Brewers bullpen behind him has a 3.93 ERA/4.03 FIP for the season while striking out 9.68 per nine, walking 3.44 per nine, and allowing 1.22 homeruns/9 with a BABIP of .281.
Those numbers for the last two weeks are slightly different with a 4.1 ERA/4.37 FIP. The strikeouts change to 9.5 per nine, walks to 4.66 BB/9, and homeruns go to 1.12 per nine innings with a overall BABIP of .274.
For the last month they have allowed 1.44 homers per nine, 3.65 walks, and struck out 9.8 batters per nine innings with a BABIP of .282. They have a 3.94 ERA/4.41 FIP over the past month.
Freddy Peralta and the bullpen will go against the Pittsburgh Pirates offense which has an OPS of .650 with an isolated slugging of .142, a team wRC+ of 82. They have a team walk percentage of 7.9% and they strikeout 25.5% percent of the time.
Over the past two weeks, the Pittsburgh Pirates offense has struck out in 25% percent of at-bats, walked in 7% of ABs, slugged for a .139 isolated slugging, and hit for a team .650 OPS with a wRC+ of 80.
The numbers vary slightly for the past month with a OPS of .650, team isolated slugging of .131, and wRC+ of 82. During this time the Pittsburgh Pirates have struck out 25% and walked in 7% percent of at-bats.
The Pittsburgh Pirates’s offense has hit for a wRC+ of 79 in road games this season. On the road, they have a .643 on-base plus slugging and walk 7% percent of the time while striking out in 27% percent of at-bats.
The Pittsburgh Pirates against lefties have a 80 wRC+ and a .650 OPS with a 7% walk rate and a .650 strikeout rate.
Against righties they have a 82 wRC+ and a .650 OPS with a 9% walk rate and a .650 strikeout rate.
The Milwaukee Brewers are 68-60 (34-30) straight up / straight up in the division this season for a 0.53 win percentage. They are 54-74-0 against the run line, winning 0.422 percent of games. They have a 64-58-6 over/under/push record this season, going over 0.523 percent of the time and under at 0.477.
The Pittsburgh Pirates will send Zach Thompson out first to face Milwaukee Brewers. He has struck out 6.5 batters per nine thus far this season while walking 3.66 per nine. He has pitched 98.1 innings and made 21 starts, an average start of 4.67142857142857 innings. Zach Thompson has allowed 1.74 homeruns per nine innings in those starts with a 5.4 ERA/5.47 FIP for the season. He is on the road here where he has a 4.72 ERA/5.18 FIP with 6.8 K/9, 3.78 BB/9, and 1.51 HR/9 over 47.2 innings.
Zach Thompson has a 6.5 ERA/6.51 FIP over his past 4 starts and 18 innings. During this stretch he has struck out 8.5 batters per nine, walked 4.5 per nine, and allowed 2.5 homers per nine innings.
He will be backed up by his bullpen which has a 4.53 ERA/4.17 FIP to date. They have walked 3.89 per nine, struck out 8.18 per nine, and allowed 0.94 homers/nine. Their BABIP currently sits at .298.
Over the last two weeks, the Pittsburgh Pirates bullpen has a K/9 of 7.97, a BB/9 of 3.81, and a HR/9 of 0.54 with a .309 BABIP. That all adds up to a 5.44 ERA/3.59 FIP in the past fourteen days.
If we zoom out over the past month, we see a Pittsburgh Pirates bullpen that has struck out 7.45 batters per nine, walked 4.17 per nine, and allowed 0.33 homeruns per nine innings. They have a BABIP of .281 over this time period with a 4.42 ERA/3.63 FIP.
The Milwaukee Brewers’s offense has hit for a 110 wRC+ at home this season with an OPS of .750. Their walk and strikeout percentages per at-bat are 11% and 24%.
For the season, they have a .731 OPS and a .177 isolated slugging. That’s good for a 104 wRC+. At the plate, they have struck out 23.6% and walked 9.4% percent of the time.
Over the past two weeks, the offense has hit for a 108 wRC+ on a .743 OPS and .195 isolated slugging. During this run, the Milwaukee Brewers offense has struck out in 25% percent of at-bats and walked in 10% of them.
The numbers vary over the past month as the Milwaukee Brewers have walked in 10% and struck out in 25% of at-bats. This past month they have a 98 wRC+, a Milwaukee Brewers have walked in .705 OPS, and a .179 isolated slugging.
Against righties they have a 110 wRC+ and a .758 OPS with a 9% walk rate and a .758 strikeout rate.
The Milwaukee Brewers against lefties have a 89 wRC+ and a .664 OPS with a 10% walk rate and a .664 strikeout rate.
The Pittsburgh Pirates have an over/under record of 58-62-9, going over in 0.485 percent and under 0.516 percent. They have a straight-up record (straight-up division record) of 49-80 (23-32) and a Run Line record of 64-65-0.
Baseball Bot Prediction:
Pittsburgh Pirates: 3.08233231500682
Milwaukee Brewers: 4.34098933220467
Total: 7.42332164721149
BEST BETS:
Milwaukee Brewers
Under 7.5
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